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Petroleum Policy and Mexican Domestic Politics: Left Opposition, Regional Dissidence, and Official Apostasy

Edward J. Williams

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No3-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
The impact of the petroleum industry on oil-producing countries has frequently emphasized the intimate interconnection and reciprocal influences of economic and political change. The agony of contemporary Iran is a dramatic example, but only one of many that help prove the point. In Nigeria's recent history, the competition for control of petroleum resources was one factor instigating a brutal civil war. In Venezuela, a new era of constitutional stability flowed from an expanded economic base provided by petroleum export earnings. In the United States, the rise to national prominence of the Texas politicos reflected the economic changes that evolved from petroleum discoveries.



Notes - Sense and Nonsense About World Oil

M. A. Adelman

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-13
No Abstract



Notes - A Comparison of the Costs and the Results in the On/Offshore Search for Oil and Gas

Jon A. Rasmussen and Michael J. Piette

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-11
No Abstract



Notes - Public Willingness to Invest in Household Weatherization

Marvin E. Olsen and Christopher Cluett

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-12
No Abstract







An Integrated Analysis of U.S. Oil Security Policies

Frederic H. Murphy, Michael A. Toman, and Howard J. Weiss

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No3-5
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Abstract:
Despite waning governmental interest, the current world oil market provides a valuable opportunity for reflecting on how U.S. policies can be structured to best guard against future disruptions in oil supplies. A vast literature on this subject has developed over the past few years. Yet, important points of disagreement remain.



Comment on "Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks," the Energy Modeling Forum Comparison of Models

Harry D. Saunders

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-13
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Abstract:
In its recently completed study of energy shocks, the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) took 14 macroeconomic models and, by carefully comparing them, evaluated a number of policies for counteracting the negative impacts of an oil shock. The study provides an exceptional look at this important question, and the summary report by Hickman, Huntington, and Sweeney (1987) is full of valuable insights. Energy economists with an interest in this field should view the summary report, along with all its supporting reports and individual modeler summaries (available from EMF), as a required reference.



On Economic Policy Responses to Disruptions: A Reply to Harry Saunders

Bert G. Hickman, Hillard G. Huntington and James L. Sweeney

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-14
View Abstract

Abstract:
At its heart, Harry Saunders' Comment raises two principal criticisms I of the EMF study, "Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks";The EMF study held constant the disrupted-state world oil price; effects of policy actions on the world oil price were not included. Saunders faults the EMF for not explicitly examining these effects. But further, he implies that, in estimating effects of policy actions to counter the oil shock, modelers should have held constant the disrupted-state quantity of oil consumed in the US.



Energy Supply in the 1990s and Beyond

Subroto

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No1-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
I am both honored and pleased to be invited to address this, the 11th Annual Conference of the International Association for Energy Economics. Honored, because your Association is a body whose gatherings are always marked by the distinction of the participants, drawn from the ranks of the oil industry, other energy sectors, the academic world, international institutions and government departments. Accordingly, the presentations of the speakers have an impact which extends far beyond the bounds of your membership.



Oil Demand in the Developing World: Lessons from the 1980s Applied to the 1990s

Carol Dahl and Meftun Erdogan

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Oil consumption in the developing world increased 37% over the decade of the 1980s. The 1990s promise to be more dynamic yet. In this paper we trace the evolution of these changes in the 1980s for Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Econometric work is used to determine how well growth in income, prices, and population explained growth in the 1980s, comparing forecasted with actual values for 1990. We find that the forecasts are quite good at the global level while consideration of additional facts such as urbanization, vehicle stocks, balance of payments, interfuel substitution, and industrialization helps explain some of the regional variation. The econometric estimates along with a discussion of other variables are used to forecast consumption to the year 2000. The forecasts suggest that growth in oil product consumption during the 1990s is likely to be at least double that of the 1980s with Asia leading the way.



OPEC and World Crude Oil Markets from 1973 to 1994: Cartel, Oligopoly, or Competitive?

A.F Alhajji and David Huettner

Year: 2000
Volume: Volume21
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol21-No3-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
This study investigates the existence of a dominant producer in the world crude oil market for the period 1973 to 1994. Contrary to the literature, the results show that neither OPEC nor the OPEC core can be characterized as a dominant producer. Using statistical tests, we also investigate whether OPEC, the OPEC core, or Saudi Arabia fit the competitive model or the Cournot model, The statistical results reject all models except the dominant firm model for Saudi Arabia. New user cost estimates are introduced and included in the models. Ail alternative explanation of high OPEC profits in the 1973-82 period is also developed as part of a statistical test of the effect of the US oil price regulation on world oil demand and supply. An estimate of the wealth transfer from price regulation is also calculated.



Oil Production in the Lower 48 States: Economic, Geological, and Institutional Determinants

Robert K. Kaufmann and Cutler J. Cleveland

Year: 2001
Volume: Volume22
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No1-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
In this paper, we establish an empirical model for oil production in the lower 48 states that represents its economic, physical, and institutional determinants. We estimate a vector error correction model for oil production in the lower 48 states that specifies real oil prices, average production costs, and prorationing by the Texas Railroad Commission. These modifications enable us to generate a model that accounts for most of the variation in oil production in the lower 48 states between 1938 and 1991. The result that oil production in the lower 48 states shares stochastic trends with real oil prices, average production costs, and prorationing indicates that accuracy of Hubbert's bell shaped curve is fortuitous. The importance of these factors also indicates why the basic Hotelling model cannot replicate the production path for oil in the lower 48 states. This inability is critical. The negative economic effects associated with high prices and energy shortages imply that the importance of inconsistencies with the basic Hotelling model identified by this analysis may be sufficient to warrant a greater degree of government intervention in the transition from oil than is currently envisioned by most policy makers.



Are Regional Oil Markets Growing Closer Together?: An Arbitrage Cost Approach

Andrew N. Kleit

Year: 2001
Volume: Volume22
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No2-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
A large number of papers published in the last decade have attempted to show that energy markets have grown more integrated. These articles attempt to infer that various markets have become more "unified" because the correlation (in various forms) of prices between markets has increased during the last several years. This article suggests that a more appropriate modeling technique based on the theory of arbitrage as presented in Spiller and Wood (1988a and b), is better suited to answering this question. In this paper, the arbitrage technique is extended and applied to light crude oil markets in the 1990s. Arbitrage costs between markets are estimated. In addition, the hypothesis that crude oil markets have converged during this period is tested. Substantial though mixed support is gained for this hypothesis.




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