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Methods for Measuring the Oil Import Reduction Premium and the Oil Stockpile Premium

James L. Plummer

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No1-1
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Abstract:
Energy problems can be differentiated into the following three broad categories:1. Oil supply disruptions. These can cause both large short-term price increases and huge short-term economic losses. Some of the price increase impacts may persist after the disruption is over. Energy policies to address this problem, such as oil stockpiles, must have impacts beginning in a zero- to five-year time frame.



Energy Demand in Jordan: A Case Study of Energy-Economy Linkages

Charles R. Blitzer

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No4-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
Higher world oil prices in the past decade have caused serious economic disruptions in most developing countries, which as a group are highly dependent on imported oil in relation to both the sizes of their economies and their total imports. I Increased oil bills have frequently led to lower aggregate growth rates, more severe balance-of-payments and debt problems, disruptions in energy-using sectors, and domestic inflation. Whether or not world oil prices resume their upward spiral, the oil-importing developing countries will continue to face serious macro-economic adjustment problems related in one way or another to energy.



Analyzing Impacts of Potential Tax Policy Changes on U.S. Oil Security

James L. Sweeney and Michael J. Boskin

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-NoSI-8
No Abstract





The IEA Oil-Sharing Plan: Who Shares with Whom?

David R. Henderson

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No4-3
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Abstract:
The United States and twenty other countries are all members of the International Energy Agency (TEA). The members' have an agreement which requires' them to share their oil with each other if the oil supplies to the members fall substantially. Both the formula for allocating oil among members and the size of the reduction in oil supplies that triggers the sharing formula are predetermined.



A Critical Analysis of the DOE Report

S. Fred Singer

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No2-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
The DOE Report, Energy Security, responds to White House con-cern about the decline of domestic oil production and the rise of oil imports. The Report (1987) has three purposes: to present data; to make projections; and to analyze policy alternatives. It is intended to provide a basis for making rational policy choices, but it does not make specific recommendations.My analysis here is intended as a critique of the report so that policy decision making can be improved. My analysis deals mainly with the oil sector; the report itself is more comprehensive. I provide specific recommendations relating mainly to producer and consumer tax policy, import fees, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) although the report covers a wider range of topics, including federal leasing policy.



Long-Term Contracts for Crude Oil imports into Costa Rica: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Christian Dufournaud, Carlos Raul Gutierrez, Lodetrijk Berlage, and Peter P. Rogerst

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No1-10
View Abstract

Abstract:
Energy is critical for all human activity. Many countries import a major proportion of essential energy resources such as oil, for which the ability to substitute alternative inputs is difficult in both the short and long run. A possible response to the prospect that energy prices can fluctuate is for governments to negotiate long-term contracts with suppliers to mitigate sudden price shocks. This strategy is, however, not cost-free. It is equally rational for suppliers to negotiate high prices which protect them from the prospect of having to supply their oil at a lower price than they could anticipate in the future. A country seeking long-term protection from unstable oil prices via long-term contracts, therefore, faces higher current prices.



Oil Imports and National Security: Is There Still a Connection?

John H. Lichtblau

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-18
View Abstract

Abstract:
This article examines the impact of oil imports on U.S. national security. It reviews oil's links with national security, and questions the arguments for curbing imports. Debated since the 1950s, the links are based on oil's unique role in fueling the economy, its role for the sparring superpowers during the Cold War, and the political instability of the Middle East. The article challenges the "military externality' argument that U. S. imports require military protection. It compares U.S. import dependency with the much higher import dependency of most other industrial countries, none of which have expressed a national security concern similar to that of the U.S. It also points out that the source of imports is irrelevant, as the petroleum market functions globally with respect to volume and price: a shortage anywhere is a shortage everywhere. Finally, the article discusses the oft-used balance of payments argument for reducing coil imports, questioning the calculations on which it is based. It concludes that any argument for reducing oil imports for balance of payments reasons applies equally to other imported commodities.



Measuring Economic Markets for Imported Crude Oil

Douglas G. Sauer

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No2-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
A previous paper by Weiner (1991) noted that many policy issues involving crude oil imports hinge on whether crude oil markets are unified or regionalized. Weiner observed that the literature on crude oil markets has paid little attention to the regionalization issue. However, a generalized literature addressing market delineation has been evolving for some time and recent advances in applied time series analysis have produced multivariate testing procedures which avoid most of the problems of the bivariate price correlation analyses previously employed in analyzing regionalization issues. This paper advances the work of Weiner by incorporating cointegration relationships into multivariate time series models and using these models to examine the extent of regionalization in the world market for crude oil imports. The empirical results reported here lend support to Adelman's characterization of the world oil market as "one great pool" (Adelman 1984).



Import Policy Effects on the Optimal Oil Price

Steven M. Suranovic

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No3-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
A steady increase in oil imports leaves oil importing countries increasingly vulnerable to future oil price shocks. Using a variation of the U.S. EIA's oil market simulation model, equilibria displaying multiple price shocks is derived endogenously as a result of optimizing behavior on the part of OPEC Here we investigate the effects that an oil import tariff and a petroleum stock release policy may have on an OPEC optimal price path. It is shown that while both policies can reduce the magnitude of future price shocks neither may be politically or technically feasible.




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