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The Impact of President Reagan's Sudden Decontrol of Petroleum Prices on Petroleum Consumption

Ali M. Reza

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
President Reagan lifted all petroleum price controls shortly after he took office. Previously, the Carter administration had scheduled these controls to be eliminated gradually, with complete decontrol occurring by October 1, 1981. It is of interest to determine the effect of the sudden decontrol on petroleum consumption; in order to measure this effect, the role played by price must be isolated.



Notes - Sense and Nonsense About World Oil

M. A. Adelman

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-13
No Abstract



Notes - A Comparison of the Costs and the Results in the On/Offshore Search for Oil and Gas

Jon A. Rasmussen and Michael J. Piette

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-11
No Abstract



Notes - Public Willingness to Invest in Household Weatherization

Marvin E. Olsen and Christopher Cluett

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-12
No Abstract







The Price of Oil and Conflict in OPEC

Ali M. Reza

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No2-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
The price-setting behavior of the oil-exporting nations is influenced by the various elasticities of demand for and supply of oil, and the long-run optimal price trajectory is also influenced by the rate of interest and reserves (see, for example, Pindyck, 1978, and Reza, 1981). Since it is generally agreed that the long-term price elasticity exceeds the short-term elasticity (in absolute value), measuring the latter can give a clearer picture of the former. The short-term price elasticity of demand for OPEC oil is also of interest because short-term financial constraints have apparently led at least some members of OPEC to weigh the short-run outcome of their pricing decisions more heavily. The issue addressed here is the magnitude of the short-run price elasticity of the demand for oil supplied by the OPEC core (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar) and of OPEC as a group.



Changes in Oil Demand in Oil-importing Developing Countries: The Case of the Philippines

Jayant Sathaye and Stephen Meyers

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No2-12
View Abstract

Abstract:
Oil and energy use in developing countries has undergone a significant evolution in the past several years. For nearly all oil-importing developing countries (OIDCs), the two sharp oil price increases in 1973-1974 and 1978-1979 brought a large rise in import bills. With the 1973-1974 price rise, there is some indication that short-run impacts on the external economy were handled without major disruption (Dunkerley and Steinfeld, 1980). The second oil price increase, combined with worldwide recession and the diminishing world trade, caused economic growth to stagnate far more than did the first price increase (tiara, 1984).



Optimal Seasonal Distillate Inventory

Charles Tiplitz

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No3-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper summarizes an investigation of the seasonal inventory of distillate (heating) oil. My object was to determine the extra amount of distillate stock (usually called seasonal stock) to be held at the primary echelon at the beginning of the heating season (about October 31).It began with the usual belief that some traditional amount of heating oil stock be available at the beginning of the heating season. This traditional amount had been based on trends of seasonal stocks adjusted for weather and other demand changes and overlooked such things as optima price theory. Even so, this approach was flawed because seasonal patterns had become so much less severe that conventional, even careful extrapolation produced misleading and inconsistent results.



Price Elasticity of Demand for Oil and the Terms of Trade of the OPEC Countries

M. M. Metwally and A. T. Arab

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No1-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
The price elasticity of demand for oil has changed significantly since the sharp rise in oil prices in late 1973. Although oil is still a necessary commodity with a price elasticity of less than one, the policies recently introduced by many importing countries to store oil and reduce its consumption, the continuous development of energy alternatives, and the increase in oil suppliers have contributed significantly to the rise in the price elasticity of demand for this vital commodity.



Oil Demand Elasticities in Nigeria

Felix B. Dayo and Anthony O. Adeghulugbe

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No2-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
Crude oil, which was first discovered in Nigeria in 1956 by the Shell-BP Development Company, has contributed significantly to the country's economic development. The exploitation of this resource transformed Nigeria's balance of trade from chronic deficits to huge surpluses (especially during the early-to-mid 1970s). This occurred as a result of the increase in the volume as well as the value of crude oil during this period. However, the surplus started to decline in the mid-1970s due to a combination of increased imports (resulting from the oil-boom mentality that had developed) and reduced crude oil exports (caused by the downward trend in world economic situations). By late 1977 the country again had a deficit on visible trade.



The Adjustment of U.S. Oil Demand to the Price Increases of the 1970s

Dermot Gately and Peter Rappoport

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No2-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Since the 1979-80 oil price doubling, U.S. oil consumption has declined by about 20 percent, in part because of price-induced conservation. This has caused self-congratulatory euphoria, especially in the first few months of 1986, when both the oil price and OPEC were collapsing. We argue here that the euphoria could well be short-lived. U.S. oil consumption will resume its growth and, within five to ten years, could be higher than ever. Combining these results with the consensus projection of declining domestic production, the outlook for rapidly growing dependence on imported oil is disturbing. Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose.



Mideast Governments and the Oil Price Prospect

M.A. Adelman

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No2-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
The Mideast oil-producing nations are the heirs of the multi-national oil companies whom they gradually expropriated, starting around 1950. They have inherited the companies' problem: repressing investment and production.



OECD Oil Demand Dynamics: Trends and Asymmetries

William W. Hogan

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No1-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Oil market data of the 1980s reject a simple, symmetric reduced-form model of dynamic oil demand in the OECD countries. Tests of price asymmetric long-run demand models produce ambiguous results. The pooled time series estimations find near unitary output elasticities, and reject linear demand models in favor of constant elasticity formulations. Despite large differences in product prices and crude prices, the data cannot reject use of a crude price model fir aggregate oil demand. A reduced-form model symmetric in product prices but with technology trends for non-price oil conservation compares favorably with other formulations, and provides slightly lower projections of future oil demand intensity. However, even these lower econometric projections imply substantial increases in aggregate oil demand, increases which exceed those found in the conventional judgmental estimates.




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