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The Potential Role of Natural Gas in a Major Oil Crisis

Benjamin Schlesinger, Nelson E. Hay, and Jacquelyn S. Mitchell

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No2-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Most energy experts in the federal government involved with contingency planning concern themselves with what to do when or if "the balloon goes up"; i.e., after the nation's 6-million-barrel-per-day oil supply is substantially cut off.



A North American Gas Trade Model (GTM)

Mark A. Beltramo, Alan S. Manne, and John P. Weyant

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No3-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
Natural gas ranks second only to crude oil as a primary source of energy in North America, During recent years, gas has satisfied 25 percent of all energy requirements in the United States. Most of this gas has been produced domestically, but 5 to 10 percent has been supplied by pipeline imports from Canada and Mexico. Additional amounts could be provided by pipelines from Alaska or by LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports from overseas, but these facilities would be expensive, and their construction continues to be delayed. Transport costs are high, and geography plays a far more important role in international gas markets than in the oil markets. For this reason, we view the North American continent as a largely self-contained system.



North American Natural Gas Markets: Summary of an Energy Modeling Forum Study

Hillard G. Huntington and Glen E. Schuler, Jr.

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper summarizes the research by the Ninth Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group which focused on the evolution of the North American natural gas market through 2010.1 The group analyzed four standardized scenarios: upper and lower oil price paths, the low U.S. natural gas resource base, and high U.S. natural gas demand. The group sought to develop insights about the gas market's development under these scenarios by using economic models and additional analyses. Some of the most critical factors highlighted in the study, that will affect the usage and price of gas in the future, are the nature of the gas-oil substitution in the industrial and utility boiler market, which will depend on relative bumertip residual fuel oil to gas prices, the incremental costs of finding and producing additional gas supplies in the U.S. and Canada, and the amount of potential gas imports.



Natural Gas Trade in North America: Building up to the NAFTA

Andre Plourde

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume14
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No3-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper traces the evolution of natural gas trade among Canada, Mexico, and the United States in the 1967-1992 period. In addition, the provisions of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that relate to natural gas trade are examined in the light of the corresponding aspects of the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement (FTA). One of the main conclusions to emerge is that exports from Canada to the United States would likely continue to dominate North American natural gas trade patterns under the NAFTA. Past experience suggests that regulatory policies play a crucial role in determining trade patterns. In the case of Canada and the United States, the policies of deregulation implemented by the two countries prior to 1989 have proven to be much more important than has the FTA in encouraging cross-border trade in natural gas. Since the NAFTA allows Mexico to maintain a highly interventionist approach to energy policy, an internally-driven process of policy change will be required to liberalize natural gas trade between Mexico and the other parties to the Agreement. A few specific developments relating to natural gas trade among the NAFTA parties are also examined in the light of the Agreement.



How Might North American Oil and Gas Markets Have Performed with a Free Trade Agreement in 1970?

G. Campbell Watkins and Leonard Waverman

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume14
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No3-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Deregulation on both sides of the U.S.-Canadian border has made certain aspects of trade agreements largely superfluous in the near term. It is over the longer term that the impact of the NAFTA will become apparent. To grapple with this issue, simulations are attempted of oil and gas trade between the United States and Canada as if the NAFTA had been in place before the first oil price shock of 1973. The simulations suggest substantial additional exports of Canadian oil and gas would have enabled the United States to back out volumes of OPEC oil during the critical years of the late 1970s and early 1980s. This would have served to dampen world oil markets during the years of OPEC ascendency--not dramatically, but not negligibly either. By promoting closer integration of energy markets, the NAFTA should lead to more cohesive North American responses to any future world oil shocks.



The Refining Industry in the North Atlantic

Keith Hamm

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-10
View Abstract

Abstract:
By 1993, refining capacity in Western Europe and North America was about in line with demand. The massive surplus in capacity evident in the early 1980s had been eliminated by reductions in capacity and increases in demand. This rebalancing, together with changes in the structure of crude pricing have, laid the basis for a more sound economic performance than has been the case, hitherto. Against this background there is a substantial investment requirement in the coming years, both positive, to take account of new business opportunities, and negative, needed just to stay in business. These latter investments stem from environmental legislation, tightening the specifications required both for finished products and operations of refineries. These requirements, coming on top of the poor profit performance of the last ten years have led to continued rationalisation by the industry despite evidence of emerging bottlenecks.



Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets

Marlin King and Milan Cuc

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No2-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
In this paper we apply time-varying parameter (Kalman Filter) analysis to measure the degree of price convergence in North American natural gas spot markets. This statistical approach allows for an assessment of the strength of price convergence across various gas-producing basins. It is also a technique better suited than cointegration analysis because of the explicit presence of time varying parameters. Our results indicate that price convergence in natural gas spot markets has increased significantly since the price deregulation of the mid1980s. However, results to date indicate that there is still some way to go before one can speak of a single North American market for natural gas.



Is There an East-West Split in North American Natural Gas Markets?

Apostolos Serletis

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume18
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No1-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper presents evidence concerning shared stochastic trends in North American natural gas (spot) markets, using monthly data for the period that natural gas has been traded on organized exchanges (from June, 1990 to January, 1996). In doing so, it uses the Engle and Granger (1987) approach for estimating bivariate cointegrating relationships as well as Johansen's (1988) maximum likelihood approach for estimating cointegrating relationships in multivariate vector autoregressive models. The results indicate that the east-west split does not exist.





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