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IV. The Economics of Gas Supply, The Effects of Decontrol Policy Options

Steven E. Muzzo

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No4-4
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Over the past nine or so years, the United States has focused a large portion of its national attention on energy concerns. Indeed, the world economy is in the midst of an economic revolution over the value of one of its most important inputs. A new economic reality-that once cheap energy sources that fuel the world economy are becoming more and more expensive-has forced much of the world, and especially the United States, to reevaluate its policies on energy sources and uses.

The Natural Gas Industry in Transition

George H. Lawrence and Michael I. German

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No1-8
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After 25 years of field price regulation, the U.S. natural gas industry is moving to a deregulated field market. This transition period has been made more difficult because of the international recession, depressed oil prices, and statutory restraints on gas use that were originally designed under assumptions of declining gas supply.

Gas Supplies for the World Market

James T. Jensen

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-13
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The ability of natural gas to compete with other energy sources is increasingly favored by environmental and technological developments. Front a worldwide perspective, the gas reserves needed to satisfy this growing market are large (relative to gas demand) and are growing more rapidly. However, gets, unlike oil, is expensive to transport and many of the world's present gas reserves are in deposits that are too small or too remote to be of commercial value at present price levels. As a result, much of the supply will prove difficult to deliver to the markets that most need it, and the price consequences of market growth will vary from market to market.

Natural Gas in the U.S.: How Far Can Technology Stretch the Resource Base?

Cutler J. Cleveland and Robert K. Kaufmann

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume18
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No2-5
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We review the theoretical underpinnings of the exponential model, the amount of gas discovered per unit effort, a quantity called yield-per-effort (YPE), and estimate an econometric model that represents the historical determinants of the YPE for nonassociated gas discoveries in the lower 48 states from 1943 to 1991, the entire period for which the requisite data are available. Results indicate the YPE declines as the exponential function of cumulative drilling when short run changes in drilling effort, real gas prices, and shifts between onshore and offshore are accounted for. We explicitly test and reject the hypothesis that technological change has arrested or reversed the long run decline in YPE. We also discuss some alternative models of YPE that misrepresent the interplay of depletion and technical innovation, as well as the process of innovation itself, and the statistical and methodological shortcomings of the empirical analyses used to support several alternative models of YPE.

Stochastic Mixed-Integer Programming for Integrated Portfolio Planning in the LNG Supply Chain

Adrian Werner, Kristin Tolstad Uggen, Marte Fodstad, Arnt-Gunnar Lium, and Ruud Egging

Year: 2014
Volume: Volume 35
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.1.5
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We present a new model to support strategic planning by actors in the liquefied natural gas market. The model takes an integrated portfolio perspective and addresses uncertainty in future prices. Decision variables include investments and disinvestments in infrastructure and vessels, chartering of vessels, the timing of contracts, and spot market trades. The model accounts for various contract types and vessels, and it addresses losses. The underlying mathematical model is a multistage stochastic mixed-integer linear problem. Industry-motivated numerical cases are discussed as benchmarks for the potential increases in profits that can be obtained by using the model for decision support. These examples illustrate how a portfolio perspective leads to decisions different than those obtained using the traditional net present value approach. We show how explicitly considering uncertainty affects investment and contracting decisions, leading to higher profits and better utilization of capacity. In addition, model run times are competitive with current business practices of manual planning.

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