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The Value of Australia's Natural Gas Resource - A Linear Programing Analysis

K. J. Stocks and A. R. de L. Musgrove

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No2-7
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Abstract:
Natural gas prices in Australia have evolved from long-term contracts negotiated when energy prices were considerably lower than they are today.' Following the increases in the world price of oil and the Australian government's policy to price new indigenous oil supplies at the world parity price, it seemed that natural gas was being undervalued. A vigorous debate ensued. One side maintained that gas should also be priced on the domestic market to reflect the value of LNG in the world market. A similar view asserted that gas ought to be priced at the energy-equivalent value of crude oil.



A North American Gas Trade Model (GTM)

Mark A. Beltramo, Alan S. Manne, and John P. Weyant

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No3-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
Natural gas ranks second only to crude oil as a primary source of energy in North America, During recent years, gas has satisfied 25 percent of all energy requirements in the United States. Most of this gas has been produced domestically, but 5 to 10 percent has been supplied by pipeline imports from Canada and Mexico. Additional amounts could be provided by pipelines from Alaska or by LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports from overseas, but these facilities would be expensive, and their construction continues to be delayed. Transport costs are high, and geography plays a far more important role in international gas markets than in the oil markets. For this reason, we view the North American continent as a largely self-contained system.



Gas Supplies for the World Market

James T. Jensen

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-13
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Abstract:
The ability of natural gas to compete with other energy sources is increasingly favored by environmental and technological developments. Front a worldwide perspective, the gas reserves needed to satisfy this growing market are large (relative to gas demand) and are growing more rapidly. However, gets, unlike oil, is expensive to transport and many of the world's present gas reserves are in deposits that are too small or too remote to be of commercial value at present price levels. As a result, much of the supply will prove difficult to deliver to the markets that most need it, and the price consequences of market growth will vary from market to market.



The LNG Revolution

James T. Jensen

Year: 2003
Volume: Volume24
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No2-1
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Abstract:
This paper discusses the influence that the world wide liberalization of the natural gas industry is likely to have on the future development of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The paper examines some of the barriers to the workably competitive commodity model for this complex cross-border trade and speculates about the likely future structure of the industry.



Global Natural Gas Issues and Challenges: A Commentary

Michelle Michot Foss

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No2-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Interest in the potential for natural gas to emulate oil as a �global� commodity has grown. While international trade in natural gas in liquefied form has occurred for roughly 40 years, natural gas transactions largely take place in local and regional geographies. Growing demand among large consuming nations relative to global distribution of natural gas resources makes for a compelling story with respect to international, transoceanic trade outlooks. However, natural gas and the natural gas �value chain� are imbued with unique characteristics that require careful consideration by developers, researchers, regulators and policy makers. This article provides an overview and suggests key questions and issues for further research.



Expectations and the Evolving World Gas Market

Dagobert L. Brito and Peter R. Hartley

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No1-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
A number of authors have noted that recent changes in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry are likely to favor shorter term multilateral trades of LNG relative to long term bilateral and project-specific contracts. We present a model in which expectations of such a change in market structure alter investment behavior in a way that reinforces the original tendency. The result is that the structure of the natural gas market could change quite quickly, as happened previously in the world oil market.



The Global Natural Gas Market: Will Transport Cost Reductions Lead to Lower Prices?

Knut Einar Rosendahl and Eirik Lund Sagen

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No2-2
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Abstract:
Reduced transportation costs are usually associated with lower import prices, increased trade and price convergence. In this paper we show that lower transport costs can actually lead to higher import prices in some regions, and price divergence between import regions. Using both a general theoretical approach and a numerical model of the global natural gas market, we demonstrate that the price effect from transport cost reductions depend on the relative distances between regional markets, the choice of transport technology, and supply and demand responsiveness in the different markets. Our numerical results suggest that European consumers would generally be better off if pipeline costs are reduced, while North American consumers would be better off if LNG costs are reduced.



Natural Gas Pricing in Countries of the Middle East and North Africa

Hossein Razavi

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No3-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper presents a quantitative framework for discussing the gas pricing policy in the countries of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) where gas prices are set directly or indirectly by the governments. It concludes that the price of gas in most MENA countries is substantially below its economic cost, resulting in wasteful use of gas and electricity, deployment of inefficient technologies, and huge burden on government budgets. The low gas price also causes a bias in favor of gas export projects while at the same time reduces investors� interest in the upstream and downstream gas sector. The implications are most interesting about four countries � Algeria, Qatar, Egypt and Iran � where each country has to revisit its gas allocation policy and where each government is trying to de-link investors� interest from domestic gas prices.



The Future of Long-term LNG Contracts

Peter R. Hartley

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.3.phar
View Abstract

Abstract:
Long-term contracts have long dominated the international market for LNG. Since 2000, however, the proportion of LNG-traded spot or under short-term contracts has grown substantially, while long-term contracts have become more flexible. While long-term contracts increase the debt capacity of large, long-lived, capital investments by reducing cash flow variability, they also may limit the ability of the contracting parties to take advantage of profitable ephemeral trading opportunities. After developing a model that illustrates these trade-offs, we argue that increased LNG market liquidity resulting from a number of exogenous changes is likely to encourage much greater volume and destination flexibility in contracts and increased reliance on short-term and spot market trades. These changes would, in turn, reinforce the initial increase in market liquidity.



Global LNG Pricing Terms and Revisions: An Empirical Analysis

Mark Agerton

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.1.mage
View Abstract

Abstract:
Asian long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are generally thought to index LNG prices to oil prices. This should mean that LNG and oil prices are cointegrated. However, statistical evidence for cointegration using Japanese data is not strong. To resolve this puzzle, I examine 16 Japanese, South Korean, Taiwanese, and Spanish LNG import price series and allow for multiple, unknown structural breaks in the relationship to oil prices. This resolves the puzzle, and I provide estimates for the timing of breaks and the underlying average pricing terms. I relate these to count, volume, and duration data on long-term contracts and discuss how to interpret econometric estimates in light of contract data. This paper complements existing work on global gas market integration, which largely ignores how discrete changes in oil-indexed long-term contracts will affect empirical relationships.




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