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Systematic Features of High-Frequency Volatility in Australian Electricity Markets: Intraday Patterns, Information Arrival and Calendar Effects

Helen Higgs and Andrew C. Worthington

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No4-2
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Abstract:
This paper investigates the intraday price volatility process in four Australian wholesale electricity markets; namely New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. The data set consists of half-hourly electricity prices and demand volumes over the period January 1, 2002 to June 1, 2003. A range of processes including GARCH, RiskMetrics, normal Asymmetric Power ARCH or APARCH, Student APARCH and skewed Student APARCH are used to model the time-varying variance in prices and the inclusion of news arrival as proxied by the contemporaneous volume of demand, time-of-day, day-of-week and month-of-year effects as exogenous explanatory variables. The skewed Student APARCH model, which takes account of right skewed and fat tailed characteristics, produces the best results in all four markets. The results indicate significant innovation (ARCH effects) and volatility (GARCH effects) spillovers in the conditional standard deviation equation, even with market and calendar effects included. Intraday prices also exhibit significant asymmetric responses of volatility to the flow of information.



Market Design with Centralized Wind Power Management: Handling Low-predictability in Intraday Markets

Arthur Henriot

Year: 2014
Volume: Volume 35
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.1.6
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Abstract:
This paper evaluates the benefits for an agent managing the wind power production within a given power system to trade in the intraday electricity markets, in a context of massive penetration of intermittent renewables. Using a simple analytical model we find out that there are situations when it will be costly for this agent to adjust its positions in intraday markets. A first key factor is of course the technical flexibility of the power system: if highly flexible units provide energy at very low prices in real-time there is no point in participating into intraday markets. Besides, we identify the way wind production forecast errors evolve constitutes another essential, although less obvious, key-factor. Both the value of the standard error and the correlation between forecasts errors at different gate closures will determine the strategy of the wind power manager. Policy implications of our results are the following: low liquidity in intraday markets will be unavoidable for given sets of technical parameters, it will also be inefficient in some cases to set discrete auctions in intraday markets, and compelling players to adjust their position in intraday markets will then generate additional costs.



The Role of Continuous Intraday Electricity Markets: The Integration of Large-Share Wind Power Generation in Denmark

Fatih Karanfil and Yuanjing Li

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.2.fkar
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Abstract:
This paper suggests an innovative idea to examine the functionality of an intraday electricity market by testing causality among its fundamental components. Using Danish and Nordic data, it investigates the main drivers of the price difference between the intraday and day-ahead markets, and causality between wind forecast errors and their counterparts. Our results show that the wind and conventional generation forecast errors significantly cause the intraday price to differ from the day-ahead price, and that the relative intraday price decreases with the unexpected amount of wind generation. Cross-border electricity exchanges are found to be important to handle wind forecast errors. Additionally, some zonal differences with respect to both causality and impulse responses are detected. This paper provides the first evidence on the persuasive functioning of the intraday market in the case of Denmark, whereby intermittent production deviations are effectively reduced, and wind forecast errors are jointly handled through the responses from demand, conventional generation, and intraday international electricity trade.



Enhancing Intraday Price Signals in U.S. ISO Markets for a Better Integration of Variable Energy Resources

Ignacio Herrero, Pablo Rodilla, and Carlos Batlle

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.3.iher
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Abstract:
Efficient operation of power systems increasingly requires accurate forecasting of load and variable energy resources (VER) production, along with flexible resources and markets, capable of adapting to changing conditions in the intraday horizon. It is of utmost importance to reflect these needs in price signals, to align the incentives of market agents with the new challenges. The two-settlement system used by U.S. ISOs falls short to provide efficient intraday economic signals and a cost reflective allocation of intraday rescheduling costs. This paper advocates for a multi-settlement system, which entails calculating intraday prices as forecasts are updated and re-schedules are executed. This approach incorporates more granular prices, as in European intraday markets, while keeping the efficient centralized dispatch logic of the ISO model. A stylized case example illustrates the virtues of a multi-settlement system, which sends cost reflective signals, and consequently facilitates VER integration.



Informed Trading in the WTI Oil Futures Market

Olivier Rousse and Benoit Sevi

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.2.orou
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Abstract:
The weekly release of the U.S. inventory level by the DOE-EIA is known as the market mover in the U.S. oil futures market. We uncover suspicious trading patterns in the WTI futures markets in days when the inventory level is released that are higher than market forecasts: there are significantly more orders initiated by buyers in the two hours preceding the official release of the inventory level, with a drop in the average price of -0.25% ahead of the news release. This finding is consistent with informed trading. We also provide evidence of an asymmetric response of the oil price to oil-inventory news, and highlight an over-reaction that is partly compensated in the hours following the announcement.



Could Market Making be Profitable in The European Carbon Market?

Emilios Galariotis, Iordanis Kalaitzoglou, Kyriaki Kosmidou, Spiros Papaefthimiou, and Spyros I. Spyrou

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: The New Era of Energy Transition
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.SI1.egal
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Abstract:
We investigate when market making can be profitable in the European Carbon Futures market, by developing an order type selection rule, based solely on transaction level data. We employ a granular approach that uses an observable variable, i.e. trading intensity, to extract the liquidity and information price components and we investigate their impact on spreads, volatility and ultimately on the profitability of different order types. We find that market orders are always less profitable than limit orders. In addition, market makers are expected to derive most of their profits in a low trading intensity environment, mainly due to higher liquidity commissions and a lower probability of dealing with better informed agents. In contrast, an unconditional limit order submission strategy from an off-floor trader should not be preferred, apart from a medium trading intensity environment, where information and liquidity premia adequately compensate them for execution and information risk.



The Natural Gas Announcement Day Puzzle

Marcel Prokopczuk, Chardin Wese Simen, and Robert Wichmann

Year: 2021
Volume: Volume 42
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.2.mpro
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Abstract:
This paper studies natural gas futures returns on EIA storage announcement days. More than 50% of the annual return is earned on these days. We find a significant difference between announcement and non-announcement day returns, which cannot be explained by the announcement surprise or other control variables. At the intraday level, the return splits half into a pre- and post-announcement part. The pre-announcement return is entirely generated on days when storage levels exceed analysts� expectations casting doubt on explanations based on informed trading. After transaction and funding cost, a simple trading strategy yields substantial returns.



Intraday Return Predictability in the Crude Oil Market: The Role of EIA Inventory Announcements

Zhuzhu Wen, Ivan Indriawan, Donald Lien, and Yahua Xu

Year: 2023
Volume: Volume 44
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.4.zwen
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Abstract:
We study the impact of the announcements released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on crude oil storage every Wednesday at 10:30 ET (the beginning of the third half-hour interval) on intraday return predictability, that is, intraday momentum. Our results indicate that returns on the third half-hour on EIA announcement days can significantly and positively predict the returns in the last half-hour, whereas, on non-EIA announcement days, only returns in the first half-hour have significant predictability. The dominant source of prediction in the first half-hour return mainly comes from the overnight component. EIA announcements contribute to intraday momentum because they attract more informed traders and because the period surrounding their release is often associated with a reduction in liquidity. Substantial economic gains can be made by using efficient intraday predictors as trading signals.





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