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Technological Change and International Trade - Insights from REMIND-R

Marian Leimbach, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Michael Luken and Ottmar Edenhofer

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-5
View Abstract

Within this paper, we explore the technical and economic feasibility of very low stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentration based on the hybrid model REMIND-R. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC and the scientific literature have analyzed some low stabilization scenarios but with as yet little attention being given to the regional distribution of the global mitigation costs. Our study helps to fill this gap. While we examine how technological development and international trade affect mitigation costs, this paper is novel in addressing the interaction between both. Simulation results show for instance that reduced revenues from fossil fuel exports in a low stabilization scenario tend to increase mitigation costs borne by the exporting countries, but this impact varies with the technology options available. Furthermore it turns out that the use of biomass in combination with carbon capturing and sequestration is key in order to achieve ambitious CO2 reduction targets. Regions with high biomass potential can clearly benefit from the implementation of low stabilization scenarios due to advantages on the carbon market. This may even hold if a reduced biomass potential is assumed.

Storing Wind for a Rainy Day: What Kind of Electricity Does Denmark Export?

Richard Green and Nicholas Vasilakos

Year: 2012
Volume: Volume 33
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.33.3.1
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Physical laws mean that it is generally impossible to identify which power stations are exporting to another country, but economic logic offers strong clues. On windy days, Denmark tends to export electricity to its neighbours, and to import power on calm days. Storing electricity in this way thus allows the country to deal with the intermittency of wind generation. We show that this kind of behaviour is theoretically optimal when a region with wind and thermal generation can trade with one based on hydro power. However, annual trends in Denmark's trade follow its output of thermal generation and are inversely related to Nordic production of hydro power and the amount of water available to Scandinavian generators, with no correlation with wind generation. We estimate the cost of volatility in Denmark's wind output to equal between 4% and 8% of its market value. Keywords: Electricity, Wind generation, Hydro generation, Storage, International trade

Oil Price Volatility and Bilateral Trade

Shiu-Sheng Chen and Kai-Wei Hsu

Year: 2013
Volume: Volume 34
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.1.9
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This paper examines whether oil price volatility affects bilateral trade between two countries around the world. Using the gravity econometric model with 1,995 country-pairs covering 117 countries from 1984 to 2009, the empirical results suggest that oil price fluctuations significantly decrease bilateral trade volumes. The negative impact is more prominent the greater the distance between the two trading countries. As geographical distance is one of the measures of transport cost, our results also suggest that a potential channel through which oil price volatility hurts trade volumes is the uncertainty in transport cost.

Reciprocal Dumping under Dichotomous Regulation

Sébastien Debia and Georges Zaccour

Year: 2022
Volume: Volume 43
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.5.sdeb
View Abstract

An essential ingredient to net-zero-emissions policies is to regionally integrate electricity markets. But electricity cross-border trades are often assessed as inefficient. We explain this inefficiency by the presence of a dichotomous regulation: producers are highly regulated with regard to their local activities, but weakly regulated when it comes to their exports. Such a dichotomy in regulation can be generalized to every economic sector, with varying intensity. We develop a generic 2-player 2-stage game theoretical framework where producers anticipate the impact of their exports on the clearing of regulated local markets. We characterize the subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium of the game as a function of the relative price-elasticity between markets. Overall, dichotomous regulation leads producers to over-export in order to create scarcity in their home market. Hence, despite that local markets clear efficiently, the global equilibrium is inefficient. When the two jurisdictions are relatively symmetric, the equilibrium is Pareto-dominated by the first-best outcome. These results call for better coordination between regulators across different jurisdictions.

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