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Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change - A Multi-gas Investigation with WIAGEM-GTAPEL-ICM

Claudia Kemfert, Truong P. Truong, and Thomas Bruckner

Year: 2006
Volume: Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy
Number: Special Issue #3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-23
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Abstract:
Climate change is a long-term issue due to the long lifespan of greenhouse gases (GHG) and the delayed response of the climate system. This paper investigates the long-term economic consequences of both climate change impacts and mitigation efforts by applying the multi-regional, multi-sectoral integrated assessment model WIAGEM based on GTAP-EL coupled with the reduced-form multi-gas climate model ICM. We investigate emissions reduction paths to reach a radiative forcing target of 4.5 W/m2. Economic impacts are studied and compared with and without the inclusion of all GHG gases. We find that multi-gas emissions reduction causes less economic losses compared with a case where only CO2 emissions reductions would be considered.



Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Stagflation of the 1970s: Some Insights from GEM

Benjamin Hunt

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No4-3
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Abstract:
Using a variant of the IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM), featuring energy as both an intermediate input into production and a final consumption good, this paper examines the macroeconomic implications of large increases in the price of energy. Within a fully optimizing framework with nominal and real rigidities arising from costly adjustment, large increases in energy prices can generate inflation persistence similar to that seen in the 1970s if the monetary authority misperceives the economy�s supply capacity and workers are able to temporarily resist some of the erosion in their real consumption wages resulting from the energy price increase. In the absence of these two responses, the model suggests that energy price shocks cannot generate the type of stagflation witnessed in the 1970s. The analysis goes some way toward reconciling the results found in the empirical literature on the changing nature of the macroeconomic implications of oil price shocks.





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