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Oil Industry Structure and Evolving Markets

Joe Roeber

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-14
View Abstract

Abstract:
Of all the changes in the oil industry over the past 20 years, the most radical have taken place in the market, and in the formation of prices. These are both a response to and a cause of changes in industry structure. From plannable supplies at relatively stable prices, companies have had to learn to handle short term supplies in condition of extreme volatility. Management of the resulting price risk has become a central role of the companies' supply departments, and the use of paper markets (forward, futures and derivatives) has become an integral part of price formation. It is not impossible that the changes would be reversed, if the conditions that brought them into being-surplus production and de-integrated supply structures-were reversed in conditions of scarcity, but it is highly unlikely. Far more likely, is that risk management and the use of paper markets will increase in importance.



Bilateral Forward Contracts and Spot Prices

Nodir Adilov

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No3-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
Allaz and Vila (1993) have shown that forward markets could mitigate market power and improve efficiency. This paper shows that efficiency-improving effect of forward markets is sensitive to the assumption that market participants behave like rational expectations agents when forecasting prices. The existence of forward contracts could increase spot prices and hurt efficiency if buyers engage in bilateral forward contracts and forward rates are influenced by historic prices. These findings have important policy implications for the electricity industry.



Strategic Forward Contracting in the Wholesale Electricity Market

Pär Holmberg

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No1-7
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Abstract:
This paper analyses a wholesale electricity market with supply function competition. Trade in the forward and spot markets is represented by a two-stage game, and its subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE) is characterized. It is verified that increased forward sales of a producer constitute a credible commitment to aggressive spot market bidding. The paper identifies market situations when this pro-competitive commitment is unilaterally profitable for the producer. It is also proven that a producer has incentives to sell in the forward market in order to reduce competitors' forward sales, which softens their spot market offers.



Emissions Trading in Forward and Spot Markets for Electricity

Makoto Tanaka and Yihsu Chen

Year: 2012
Volume: Volume 33
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.33.2.9
View Abstract

Abstract:
Tradable allowances have received considerable attention in recent years. One emerging issue is their interaction with electricity markets. This paper extends the model of Allaz and Vila (1993) by incorporating emissions trading with forward and spot markets for electricity. We focus on the effects of strategic forward position and initial allowances allocation on the equilibrium outcomes. We find that firms with a dirty portfolio would have stronger incentives to take a long position in the forward market to raise the electricity price. Increasing the amount of allowances assigned to clean firms leads to a reduction in electricity and allowance prices. Keywords: Cap-and-Trade, Market Power, Forward Contract



Foreword to the Special Issue on “High Shares of Renewable Energy Sources and Electricity Market Reform”

Carlo Andrea Bollino and Reinhard Madlener

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Bollino-Madlener Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.SI2.cbol
No Abstract



Ontario's Auction Market for Financial Transmission Rights: An Analysis of its Efficiency

Derek E. H. Olmstead

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.1.dolm
View Abstract

Abstract:
Financial transmission rights (FTR) are financial products that entitle their holder to receive a payment based on the degree of congestion in a transmission system. In many liberalized electricity markets, FTR are sold at auction by the local electricity system operator. This paper addresses several questions about the performance of FTR auctions in Ontario's restructured electricity market, including whether auction market clearing prices approximate realized payouts and whether there is any evidence that the competitiveness of auctions, as measured by the number of bidders, affects the forward market unbiasedness or informational efficiency of the auctions. The paper finds that the auction process is inefficient in the sense that market clearing prices are substantially and systematically lower than realized payouts, resulting in substantial transfers away from consumers. However, there is some evidence that the auction market is more efficient when there are three or more bidders.



Modelling Electricity Swaps with Stochastic Forward Premium Models

Iván Blanco, Juan Ignacio Peña, and Rosa Rodriguez

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.2.ibla
View Abstract

Abstract:
We present a new model for pricing electricity swaps. Two general factors affect contracts but unique risk elements affect each contract. General factors are average swap prices and deterministic trend-seasonal components, and unique elements are forward premiums. Innovations follow MNIG distributions. We estimate the model with data from the European Energy Exchange. The model outperforms four competitors, both in in-sample valuation and in out-of-sample forecasting, and in fitting the term structure of volatilities by market segments. Competitor models are (i) diffusion spot prices, (ii) jump-diffusion spot prices with time dependent volatility, (iii) HJM-based and (iv) Levy multifactor model with NIG distributions. Value-at-Risk measures based on normality strongly underestimate tail risk but our model gives estimates that are more exact.



Renewable Energy Technologies and Electricity Forward Market Risks

Derck Koolen, Derek Bunn, and Wolfgang Ketter

Year: 2021
Volume: Volume 42
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.4.dkoo
View Abstract

Abstract:
We analyse how the introduction of the same renewable energy technology at different parts of the electricity supply chain has different price formation effects on wholesale power markets. We develop a multi-stage competitive equilibrium model to evaluate the effects on short-term price formation of a technology shift from conventional to both large-scale renewable energy production (e.g. wind and solar farms) and distributed renewable energy sources (e.g. rooftop solar). We find that wind and solar technologies oppositely affect the forward risk premium, and this is related to technology-varying, risk-related hedging pressures of producers and retailers. We form a multi-factor propositional framework and empirically validate the model by analyzing data from California and Britain; two markets which recently experienced significant increases of renewable power, in terms of utility scale and distributed sources. The work is innovative in showing theoretically and empirically how different types of renewable technologies influence market price formation differently. This has implications for market participants facing wholesale price risks, as well as regulators and policy-makers.



Market Makers and Liquidity Premium in Electricity Futures Markets

Juan Ignacio Peña and Rosa Rodríguez

Year: 2022
Volume: Volume 43
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.2.jpen
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper studies the forward premium as a liquidity premium in electricity futures markets as determined by producers and retailers' demand for immediacy. Demand for immediacy by a buyer (seller) means the willingness to buy (sell) at the current market price rather than wait until a better price appears. An imbalance between the supply and demand of futures contracts creates a demand for immediacy. Market makers satisfy this demand by offsetting the imbalance at the current market price and require a liquidity premium until the imbalance disappears. The liquidity premium is negative (positive) when market makers sell (buy) futures contracts. The empirical application to the French, German, Spanish, and Nordic futures electricity markets in 2008–2017, finds several periods with a negative liquidity premium in the first three markets, suggesting that retailers wanted to offload a higher amount of price risk than the producers. The premium decreases when the number of market makers increases.



Load-Following Forward Contracts

David P. Brown and David E. M. Sappington

Year: 2023
Volume: Volume 44
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.2.dbro
View Abstract

Abstract:
Suppliers and large buyers of electricity often sign load-following forward contracts (LFFCs). A LFFC obligates an electricity supplier to deliver at a pre-specified unit price a fraction of the buyer's ultimate demand for electricity. We show that relative to more standard ("swap") forward contracts, LFFCs can reduce the variation in the wholesale price of electricity. However, LFFCs also can increase the expected wholesale price and thereby reduce expected consumer surplus and total surplus.




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