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The Dilemma of Economic Versus Statistical Models of Energy

J. Daniel Khazzoom

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-10
View Abstract

Abstract:
The recent surge of interest among energy planners in economic models' for predicting the energy outlook has coincided with a growing senseof disillusionment among many practicing econometricians about the forecasting performance of economic models (see, for example, Stekler, 1968).Many economists argue that the problem with economic models lies in the economic theories behind them. These theories analyze the impact of policy changes on the assumption that the structure will not change, when in fact what may happen is that the structure itself, and not just the variables ofinterest, may change as policy changes. What is needed is a theory that predicts how the structure will change in response to such policy changes.



Electricity Demand in Primary Aluminum Smelting

Knut Anton Mork

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No3-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Primary aluminum smelting is one of the giant energy users among the manufacturing industries. With current technology, the smelting is done by an electrolytic process requiring as much as 13 to 19 megawatt-hours (MWh) of direct-current electricity per metric ton of aluminum metal.



An Integrated Approach to Electricity Demand Forecasting

Harlan D. Platt

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-NoSI-5
No Abstract



The Economics of Electricity Demand Charges

J. Stephen Henderson

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-NoSI-8
No Abstract



Distributed Lags and the Demand for Electricity

Ronald J. Sutherland

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-NoSI-9
No Abstract



Asymmetry in the Residential Demand for Electricity

Trevor Young, Thomas H. Stevens, and Cleve Willis

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-NoSI-10
No Abstract



Residential Electricity Demand Modeling in the Australian Capital Territory: Preliminary Results

W. A. Donnelly

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No2-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
The demand for electricity has recently become a topic of major interest in Australia, where very little empirical analysis has been done (see Hawkins, 1975; Saddler et al., 1980; Department of National Development and Energy, 1981; Brian and Schuyers, 1981; and Donnelly and Saddler, 1982). Two of the policy issues being raised concern the appropriate pricing strategies that should be adopted by supplying authorities and the need for additional generating capacity. An understanding of the relative importance of the factors influencing electricity demand is required to aid public policy making, particularly since substantial investment is now being considered.



Residential Electricity Demand: A Suggested Appliance Stock Equation

Christopher Garbacz

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No2-11
View Abstract

Abstract:
A large amount of work in residential electricity demand has relied on logit estimation of a disaggregated appliance stock. (See the seminal work by McFadden et al., 1977.) While this approach may be suitable for certain types of models with certain goals in mind, a simple formulation of an appliance stock equation may sometimes be appropriate. For example, if the goal is to estimate seasonal patterns in elasticities employing a national micro-data set (as in the National Interim Energy Consumption Survey 1978-1979; see U.S. Department of Energy, 1980), then it may be appropriate to develop an appliance stock equation to predict the size of an appliance stock index (approximating a continuous variable). The present appliance stock equation is part of a three-equation model that is estimated in log-linear form via 2SLS.



Electricity Growth in the Future

Stephen C. Peck and John P. Weyant

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Electricity demand in the United States declined in 1974 after over twenty years of sustained growth. By 1976, the growth rate was back up to 5 percent, but since then it has eroded steadily, with demand in 1982 slightly less than in 1981. This paper provides a simple way to understand these trends in electricity demand and to project futuredevelopments.



Economic Demand Analysis for Electricity in West Africa

Emmanuel Glakpe and Rocco Fazzolare

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-11
View Abstract

Abstract:
Past and future electricity demand was analyzed for seven countries of West Africa: Ghana, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Republic of Niger, Togo, Benin, and Burkina Faso (until recently Upper Volta). These countries constitute approximately 84 percent of the West African population. Primary energy resource endowments include agricultural waste, fossil fuels, hydra power, and some deposits of uranium (not uniformly distributed). Each country has some hydro power, with Nigeria having the largest resources. Deposits of crude oil have been discovered in most of the countries. Nigeria leads in known oil reserves and produces about 2.5 million barrels of oil a day. In contrast, Burkina Faso has very little available energy resources beyond a small hydro power potential.




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