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The Impact of the Oil Price Decline on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe

Jan Vanous

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No3-2
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Abstract:
The effects on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe of the decline in the world market price of oil (and the subsequent likely decline in international prices of natural gas and coal) can be divided into three groups: direct, or first-round effects-the impact of the decline in net hard-currency export revenue/net import outlays for oil and other types of energy;"spillover" effects-the impact of potential Soviet cutback in the quantity of energy sold to Eastern Europe for nonconvertible rubles and at preferential prices; indirect, or secondary effects-the impact of oil price cuts on world market interest rates and thus the cost of debt servicing; the impact on Western economic recovery and thus the demand for imports from the Eastern bloc, and so on.



Comment on "Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks," the Energy Modeling Forum Comparison of Models

Harry D. Saunders

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-13
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Abstract:
In its recently completed study of energy shocks, the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) took 14 macroeconomic models and, by carefully comparing them, evaluated a number of policies for counteracting the negative impacts of an oil shock. The study provides an exceptional look at this important question, and the summary report by Hickman, Huntington, and Sweeney (1987) is full of valuable insights. Energy economists with an interest in this field should view the summary report, along with all its supporting reports and individual modeler summaries (available from EMF), as a required reference.



On Economic Policy Responses to Disruptions: A Reply to Harry Saunders

Bert G. Hickman, Hillard G. Huntington and James L. Sweeney

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-14
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Abstract:
At its heart, Harry Saunders' Comment raises two principal criticisms I of the EMF study, "Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks";The EMF study held constant the disrupted-state world oil price; effects of policy actions on the world oil price were not included. Saunders faults the EMF for not explicitly examining these effects. But further, he implies that, in estimating effects of policy actions to counter the oil shock, modelers should have held constant the disrupted-state quantity of oil consumed in the US.





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