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The Impact of the Oil Price Decline on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe

Jan Vanous

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No3-2
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Abstract:
The effects on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe of the decline in the world market price of oil (and the subsequent likely decline in international prices of natural gas and coal) can be divided into three groups: direct, or first-round effects-the impact of the decline in net hard-currency export revenue/net import outlays for oil and other types of energy;"spillover" effects-the impact of potential Soviet cutback in the quantity of energy sold to Eastern Europe for nonconvertible rubles and at preferential prices; indirect, or secondary effects-the impact of oil price cuts on world market interest rates and thus the cost of debt servicing; the impact on Western economic recovery and thus the demand for imports from the Eastern bloc, and so on.



Impacts of the Gulf War and Changes in Eastern Europe

Jean H. Masseron

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No3-1
No Abstract



Energy Issues in Central and Eastern Europe: Considerations for International Financial Institutions

Joerg-Uwe Richter

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No3-12
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Abstract:
This paper reviews the main institutional, economic, and technical issues related to energy sector rehabilitation and development which the countries of Central and Eastern Europe face in the process of economic transformation. These issues concern the institutional weaknesses at the sectoral, subsectoral, and enterprise levels; remaining inadequacies in energy pricing; high energy intensity, low energy efficiency, and the related environmental degradation; and excessive dependence on energy imports from the former USSR.The Governments of the region are determined to introduce the reforms necessary for viable energy development. This is bound to be a substantial task that requires a coherent strategy with consistent policies and institutional measures. The most important ones are: establishing a pro-competition regulatory framework; restructuring energy enterprises, and enhancing the role of the private sector; setting energy prices that reflect economic costs; enhancing energy efficiency and environmental management of energy operations; improving the productivity of energy subsectors and enterprises through rehabilitation and technical modernization; and redirecting energy trade.Energy demand in the region may regain 1990-91 levels by the end of this decade. Nevertheless, investment requirements for rehabilitation and expansion over the next decade may total US$120-150 bn (in 1991 prices and exchange rates) for the region as a whole, which cannot be met without considerable international financial assistance.



Strategic Interdependence in European East-West Gas Trade: A Hierarchical Stackelberg Game Approach

Waft Grais and Kangbin Zheng

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No3-5
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Abstract:
The current and potential benefits of European East-West gas trade are enormous for all participants. The new and more complex structure of the natural gas transit system, as emerged with political and economic changes in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, has created uncertainties about the interdependence and interactions among the participants. Using a Stackelberg game with three layers of players (suppliers, transiters and importers), this paper establishes a framework to analyze rational behaviors of the participants and reasonable ways to formulate transparent, flexible, and incentive-compatible contracts. This framework is also used to show how to modify the trade contract to accommodate changes in the gas trade environment. Improving predictability of the players' reactions to external changes can enhance the reliability of gas trade and allow its expansion to benefit all participants.





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