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EU-ETS and Nordic Electricity: A CVAR Analysis

Harrison Fell

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No2-1
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Abstract:
A cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is estimated to determine the dynamic relationship between Nordic wholesale electricity prices and EU emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) CO2 allowance prices. An impulse response analysis reveals that electricity prices have large short-term responses to CO2 price shocks, but that this response dampens over time. Using hourly Nordic electricity spot market prices, I find that the value of short-term response of electricity prices to a shock in CO2 prices in off-peak hours is consistent with expected values for near complete pass-through of CO2 emission costs when coal-generated power is at the margin. Likewise, the estimates reveal that peak hour electricity price responses to CO2 price shocks are as expected for a market that has near complete pass-through of CO2 emission costs when natural gas-generated power is at the margin. These results further suggest the Nordic electricity market is pricing as a competitive market.



A Least-Cost optimisation Model of Co2 Capture Applied to Major uK Power Plants Within The Eu-ETS Framework

A.G. Kemp and A.S. Kasim

Year: 2008
Volume: Volume 29
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol29-NoSI-7
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Abstract:
Concerns about the cost of CO2 capture and sequestration, and the effective�ness of carbon abatement policies loom large in discussions on climate change mitiga�tion. Several writers address the issue from various perspectives. This paper attempts to add relative realism to discussions on CO2 capture costs, and, the deployment of carbon capture technology in the UK by using publicly available company data on the long term capacity expansion and CO2 capture investment programmes of selected power plants in the UK. With an estimated �8 billion plan to install a generation ca�pacity of 11 GW and capture capability of 44 MtCO2/year, it is imperative to optimise this huge potential investment. A least-cost optimisation model was formulated and solved with the LP algorithm available in GAMS. The model was then applied to ad�dress a number of issues, including the choice of an optimal carbon abatement policy within the EU-ETS framework. The major findings of the study include (a) the long term total cost curve of CO2 capture has three phases � rising, plateau, rising; (b) alternative capture technologies do not have permanent relative cost advantages or disadvantages; (c) Government incentives encourage carbon capture and the avoid�ance of emission penalty charges; and (d) the goals of EU-ETS are more effectively realised with deeper cuts in the EUA ratios than merely hiking the emission penalty, as proposed in EU-ETS Phase II.



On Bond Returns in a Time of Climate Change

Alessandro Ravina

Year: 2022
Volume: Volume 43
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.1.arav
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Abstract:
The study of the financial repercussions of low-carbon policy has focused mainly on stocks, leaving bonds out of the picture. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of low-carbon policy upon European bond returns. This is done by extending the Fama and French two factor model for bonds with an EU-ETS participation factor: GMC (Green minus Carbon). This paper makes four contributions. Firstly, it provides a statistically highly significant measure of the sensitivity of bond portfolio returns to the GMC factor. Secondly, it shows the presence of a green premium in the European bond market in between 2008 and 2018. Thirdly, evidence is found that the addition of an environmental factor improves the performance of the original model. Fourthly, the carbon stress test put forward is able to indicate the effects of a plausible but more severe average EU-ETS carbon price on bond returns.





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