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CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather

Maria Mansanet-Bataller, Angel Pardo and Enric Valor

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No3-5
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Abstract:
One of the main objectives of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme is the establishment of a market price level for allowances that show to European CO2 emitting installations the environmental impact of their polluting activities. The aim of this paper is to focus on the daily price changes during 2005 in an attempt to examine the underlying rationality of pricing behaviour. Specifically, we study the effect of those weather and non-weather variables that academic and market agents consider as the major determinants of the of CO2 price levels. The results show that the energy sources are the principal factors in the determination of CO2 price levels, and that only extreme temperatures influence them.



Cross Border Trading and Borrowing in the EU ETS

A. Denny Ellerman and Raphael Trotignon

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Special Issue #2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-NoSI2-4
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Abstract:
Cross Border Trading and Borrowing in the EU ETS A. Denny Ellerman* and Raphael Trotignon** This paper exploits a little used data resource within the central registry of the European Union�s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to analyze cross border trading and inter-year borrowing during the first trading period (2005- 2007). Cross-border flows were small in the aggregate but remarkably frequent in matching allowance deficits and surpluses at the installation level throughout the EU. These data also indicate that a novel feature of the EU ETS�the ability to borrow allowances from the forward allocation to satisfy current compliance requirements�was also used. These data provide evidence that the precondition of efficient abatement in a cap-and-trade system�widespread use of trading opportunities�was present in the first period of the EU ETS.



An Integrated Approach to Simulate the impacts of Carbon Emissions Trading Schemes

Xavier Labandeira, Pedro Linares and Miguel Rodriguez

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Special Issue #2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-NoSI2-10
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Abstract:
The present paper aims to reliably depict the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on Spain under different assumptions about the industries involved. Prior analyses, based either on highly aggregated macroeconomic or specific electricity industry models, have been limited in degree of detail or scope. Two types of modeling were combined in the present study: general equilibrium was used to assess the impact on different industries and to explain cross-industry changes, and partial equilibrium to suitably model the complex and crucial electricity system. Combining and interrelating these two models yields the effects on price, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and distributional patterns in Spain of both the current policy and of an alternative in which all industries take part in the EU ETS. Since Spain is a key participant in this scheme, the conclusions and policy implications stemming from this paper are relevant to and useful for post-Kyoto arrangements.



European Carbon Prices and Banking Restrictions: Evidence from Phase I (2005-2007)

Emilie Alberola and Julien Chevallier

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No3-3
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Abstract:
The price of European Union Allowances (EUAs) has been declining at far lower levels than expected during Phase I (2005-2007). Previous literature identifies among its main explanations over-allocation concerns, early abatement efforts in 2005, and possibly decreasing abatement costs in 2006. We advocate low allowance prices may also be explained by banking restrictions between 2007 and 2008. Based on a Hotelling-CAPM analysis, we provide statistical evidence that the French and Polish decisions to ban banking contribute to the explanation of low EUA Phase I prices. Besides, we provide the first rigorous empirical verification that the cost-of-carry relationship between EUA spot and futures prices for delivery during Phase II does not hold after the enforcement of the inter-period banking restrictions. This situation may be interpreted as a sacrifice of the temporal flexibility offered to industrials in Phase I to correct design inefficiencies, and achieve an efficient price pattern in Phase II.



New Entrant and Closure Provisions: How do they Distort?

A. Denny Ellerman

Year: 2008
Volume: Volume 29
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol29-NoSI-5
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Abstract:
Provisions to endow new entrants with free allowances and to require closed facilities to forfeit allowance endowments are ubiquitous in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, but a new design feature in cap-and-trade systems. This essay seeks to explore, within a comparative statics framework, the effect of these provisions on agent behavior in output and emissions markets assuming profit maximization. The main conclusion is that the principal effect is on capacity. The effect of the resulting over-capacity on output markets is to reduce output price and to increase output. The effect on emissions markets is more ambiguous in that it depends on the emission characteristics of the new capacity, existing capacity, and the capacity not retired, and the distribution of the excess capacity among these categories.



Carbon content of electricity futures in Phase II of the EU ETS

Harrison Fell, Beat Hintermann, and Herman Vollebergh

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.4.hfel
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Abstract:
We estimate the relationship between electricity, fuel and carbonpricesinGermany, France, the Netherlands, the Nord Pool market and Spain, using one-year futures for base and peakload prices for the years 2008-2011, corresponding to physical settlement during the second market phase of the EU ETS. We employ a series of estimation methods that allow for an increasing interactionbetweenelectricityand input prices on the one hand, and between electricity markets on the other. The results vary by country due to different generation portfolios. Overall, we find that (a) carbon costs are passed through fully in most countries; (b) under some model specifications, cost pass-through is higher during peakload than during baseload for France, Germany and the Netherlands; and (c) the results are sensitive to the degree of cross-commodity and cross-market interaction allowed.



The Implicit Carbon Price of Renewable Energy Incentives in Germany

Claudio Marcantonini, A. Denny Ellerman

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.4.cmar
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Abstract:
This research analyzes the German experience in promoting Renewable Energy (RE) as an instrument to reduce GHG emissions. It identifies the cost of reducing CO2 emissions in the power sector through the promotion of wind and solar energy for the years 2006-2010. A RE carbon surcharge and an implicit carbon price due to the RE incentives are calculated. The RE carbon surcharge is the ratio of the net cost of the RE over the CO2 emission reductions resulting from actual RE injections into the electric power system. The implicit carbon price is the sum of the RE carbon surcharge and the EUA price. Results show that for the period analyzed both the RE carbon surcharge and the implicit carbon price of wind are on the order of tens of euro per tonne of CO2, while for solar are on the order of hundreds of euro per tonne of CO2.



Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness of Cement and Steel Industries Under the EU ETS: Much Ado About Nothing

Frédéric Branger, Philippe Quirion, Julien Chevallier

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.3.fbra
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Abstract:
In a world of uneven climate policies, concerns about carbon leakage and competitiveness for heavy industries are the main arguments against the implementation of ambitious climate policies. In this paper we investigate a potential competitiveness-driven operational carbon leakage due to the European Union Emissions Trading scheme (EU ETS). We focus on two energy-intensive sectors, cement and steel, and phases I and II of the EU ETS. From a simple analytical model, we derive an equation linking net imports of cement and steel to local and foreign demand along with carbon price. We then econometrically estimate this relation both with ARIMA regression and Prais-Winsten estimation, finding that local and foreign demand are robust drivers of trade flows. We find no significant effect of the carbon price on net imports of steel and cement. We conclude that there is no evidence of carbon leakage in these sectors, at least in the short run.



Why is Spot Carbon so Cheap and Future Carbon so Dear? The Term Structure of Carbon Prices

Don Bredin and John Parsons

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.3.dbre
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