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Nonlinear Dynamics in Energy Futures

Mariano Matilla-García

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No3-2
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Abstract:
This paper studies the possible nonlinear and chaotic nature of three energy futures: natural gas, unleaded gasoline and light crude oil. Nonlinearity is analyzed using the generalized BDS statistic, along with Kaplan�s test. The results show that nonlinearity cannot be rejected. The null hypothesis of chaos is then investigated via the stability of the largest Lyapunov exponent. Evidence of chaos is found in futures returns. Global modelling techniques, like genetic algorithms, have been used in order to estimate potential motion equations. In addition, short term forecasts in futures price movements have been conducted with these estimated equations. The results show that although forecast errors are statistically smaller than those computed with other stochastic approaches, further research on these topics needs to be done.



A Dynamic Oligopolistic Electricity Market with Interdependent Market Segments

Pierre-Olivier Pineau, Hasina Rasata, and Georges Zaccour

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No4-9
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Abstract:
We propose a deterministic, discrete-time, finite-horizon oligopoly model to investigate investment and production equilibrium strategies, in a setting where demand evolves over time and the two market-segment loads (peak-and base-load) are interdependent. The players (generators) compete a` la Cournot, open-loop Nash equilibria are computed and numerical results are discussed. The model is calibrated with data from Ontario, Canada. We assess the impact on equilibrium strategies of a generation sector with more market power than what is actually the case. We also find a slight difference in the investment sequence when interdependent demand segments are considered. Finally, we analyze the impact of increasing demand elasticities over time, and varying the financial values of the production capacities that remain at the end of the planning horizon. We believe that such a tool is valuable for professionals and scholars interested in the dynamics of production capacity mix (portfolio of technologies) in the electricity sector. It is also of paramount importance for public decision makers who have to simultaneously deal with environmental issues and with price control, both of which are politically sensitive.



Carbon Price instead of Support Schemes: Wind Power Investments by the Electricity Market

Marie Petitet, Dominique Finon, and Tanguy Janssen

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.4.mpet
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Abstract:
This paper studies wind power development within electricity markets with a significant carbon price as the sole incentive. Simulation of electricity market and investment decisions by System Dynamics modelling is used to trace the evolution of the electricity generation mix over a 20-year period from an initially thermal system. A range of carbon prices is tested to determine the value above which market-driven development of wind power becomes economically possible. This requires not only economic competitiveness in terms of cost-price, but also profitability versus traditional fossil-fuel technologies. Results stress that wind power is profitable for investors only if the carbon price is significantly higher than the price required for making wind power MWh's cost-price competitive on the basis of levelized costs. In this context, the market-driven development of wind power seems only possible if there is a strong commitment to climate policy, reflected in a stable and high carbon price. Moreover, market-driven development of wind power becomes more challenging if nuclear is part of investment options. Keywords: Electricity market, Renewables, Investment, Carbon price, System dynamics modelling.



Should Developing Countries Constrain Resource-Income Spending? A Quantitative Analysis of Oil Income in Uganda

John Hassler, Per Krusell, Abdulaziz B. Shifa, and Daniel Spiro

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.1.jhas
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Abstract:
A large increase in government spending following resource discoveries often entails political risks, inefficient investments and increased volatility. Setting up a sovereign wealth fund with a clear spending constraint may decrease these risks. On the other hand, in a capital scarce developing economy with limited access to international borrowing, such a spending constraint may lower welfare by reducing domestic capital accumulation and hindering consumption increases for the currently poor. These two contradicting considerations pose a dilemma for policy makers in deciding whether to set up a sovereign wealth fund with a spending constraint. Using Uganda's recent oil discovery as a case study, this paper presents a quantitative macroeconomic analysis and examines the potential loss of constraining spending through a sovereign wealth fund with a simple spending rule. We find that the loss is relatively low and unlikely to dominate the political risks associated with increased oil spending. Thus, such a spending constraint appears well warranted.



Polypropylene Price Dynamics: Input Costs or Downstream Demand?

Lurion M. De Mello and Ronald D. Ripple

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.4.ldem
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Abstract:
This paper investigates price dynamics between polypropylene (PP), propylene, naphtha, and crude oil together with proxies representing PP using industries. We test the dynamics in the South East Asian and North Western European markets. The paper is motivated due to the importance of the propylene and PP market in various downstream industries and importantly to aid producers in having a better understanding of how input costs and demand drive the prices. We employ a vector error correction framework, which facilitates testing different dynamics among the upstream and downstream prices. We find PP prices in both regions to be endogenous, albeit with some evolution over time, i.e., input costs and downstream demand factors tend to drive PP prices. In both regional markets shocks to naphtha and oil prices tend to be driven mostly by each other's price with little effect originating from PP and propylene prices.



Is a Wetter Grid a Greener Grid? Estimating Emissions Offsets for Wind and Solar Power in the Presence of Large Hydroelectric Capacity

Miguel Castro

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.1.mcas
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Abstract:
I use random fluctuations in hourly wind and solar generation in California to estimate how much they reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides. These offsets depend on the direct displacement of high-cost natural gas generators, and on the hydropower reallocation that occurs to the hours with the lowest increase in renewable generation. Solar power daily intermittency shifts hydro from the afternoon to the evening, which increases its emissions offsets since the gas generators displaced in the evening are dirtier than those kept running in the afternoon. In contrast, wind offsets are less sensitive to hydropower reallocation, since it leads to a substitution of generators with similar emissions intensities. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for interactions between wind, solar, and hydro capacity in assessing their environmental benefits. Similar lessons will apply to electric grids with storage capacity.



Common Unobserved Determinants of Intraday Electricity Prices

Nikolaos S. Thomaidis, Gordon H. Dash, and Nina Kajiji

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: The New Era of Energy Transition
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.SI1.ntho
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Abstract:
This paper employs multilevel factor modelling techniques to unravel systematicunobserved determinants of the intraday and interzonal price curve dynamics forthe Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection. These techniquesmake an explicit separation of global drivers from region-specific common factors, thereby facilitating the identification of the actual sources of co-variability.Our empirical findings confirm the hypothesis that the common unobserved determinants of power prices in the PJM interconnection obey a block structure, someof which affect different segments of our panel. We argue that a multilevel factorapproach offers a more systematic and transparent representation of intertemporal and cross-sectional patterns in PJM electricity prices compared to alternativebrute-force VARMAX parametrizations and the single-level factor models, whichare often put forward in the literature as viable modelling alternatives.



Residential and Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvements: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of the Rebound Effect

Sondès Kahouli and Xavier Pautrel

Year: 2023
Volume: Volume 44
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.2.skah
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Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to investigate bi-directional spillovers into residential and industrial sectors induced by energy efficiency improvement (EEI) in both the short- and long-term, and the impact of nesting structure as well as the size of elasticities of substitution of production and utility functions on the magnitude and the transitional dynamic of rebound effect. Developing a dynamic general equilibrium model, we demonstrate that residential EEIs spillover into the industrial sector through the labor supply channel and industrial EEIs spillover into the residential sector through the conventional income channel. Numerical simulations calibrated on the U.S. suggest that not taking into account these spillover effects could lead to misestimating the rebound effect notably of residential sector EEIs. We also demonstrate how the size and the duration of the rebound effect depend on the elasticities of substitution’s values. Numerical simulations suggest that alternative sets of value for the elasticities of substitution may give different sizable patterns of rebound effects in both the short- and long-term. In policy terms, our results support the idea that energy efficiency policies should be implemented simultaneously with rebound effect offsetting policies by considering short- and long-term economy feedbacks. As a consequence, they require considering debates about what type of policy pathways are more effective in mitigating the rebound effect.





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