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A Risk-Hedging View to Refinery Capacity Investment in OPEC Countries

Hamed Ghoddusi and Franz Wirl

Year: 2021
Volume: Volume 42
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.1.hgho
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Abstract:
Should oil-rich members of OPEC invest in the oil refinery industry? This is a crucial energy policy question for such economies. We extend theoretical models for a vertical integration strategy within an oil-producing economy, based on a risk-hedging view. The first model highlights the trade-off between return and risk-reduction features of upstream/downstream sectors. The dynamic model demonstrates the volatility of the total budgetary revenue of each sector. Our theory-guided empirical analysis shows that though the average markup in the refining sector is significantly smaller than the profits in the upstream, downstream investment can provide some hedging value. In particular, the more stable and mean-reverting refining margins provide a partial revenue cushion when crude oil prices are low. We discuss the risk-hedging feature of the refinery industry when the crude oil market faces supply versus demand shocks.



Promoting CCS in Europe: A Case for Green Strategic Trade Policy?

Finn Roar Aune, Simen Gaure, Rolf Golombek, Mads Greaker, Sverre A.C. Kittelsen, and Lin Ma

Year: 2022
Volume: Volume 43
Number: Number 6
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.6.faun
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Abstract:
According to IEA (2018), there is a huge gap between the first-best social optimal utilization of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies to lower global CO2 emissions and the current, negligible diffusion of this technology. This calls for a financial support mechanism for CCS. We study to what extent promotion of CCS in Europe should be through subsidizing development and production of CCS technologies—an upstream subsidy—or by subsidising the purchasers of CCS technologies—a downstream subsidy. This question is examined theoretically in a stylized model and numerically by using a new approach that integrates strategic trade policy with an economic model of the European energy markets. The theory model suggests that upstream subsidies should clearly be preferred, and this is confirmed by the numerical simulations. For the European power market, the numerical simulations suggest that subsidies to CCS coal power should exceed subsidies to CCS gas power.



What Drives Credit Spreads of Oil Companies? Evidence from the Upstream, Integrated and Downstream Industries

Yihong Ma, Simon Cottrell, Sarath Delpachitra, Xiao Yu, Ping Jiang, and Quan Tran Ha Minh

Year: 2023
Volume: Volume 44
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.5.yima
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Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to examine how a shock in the oil industry affects firms' debt funding obligations using credit default swaps in different segments of the oil industry's value chain. In particular, it focuses on two types of shocks suffered by upstream, integrated and downstream firms in the industry, namely (1) endogenous shocks resulting from oil-market shocks, and (2) exogenous shocks resulting from the recent financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Using a wide data set ranging from 2007 to 2020, this paper measures the dynamic relationships between the CDS spreads of oil-related firms, US dollar exchange rates, and crude oil prices at different sectors of the oil-industry value chain, namely, upstream, integrated and downstream. Overall results show that the upstream firms have suffered the largest impacts during the COVID-19 crisis, when experiencing shocks from USD rates or oil prices. Integrated firms have suffered the second-largest effects, however, and interestingly, no significant impacts from shocks are observed on CDS spreads for downstream firms.





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