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The Social Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Expected Value Approach

Samuel Fankhauser

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No2-9
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Abstract:
This paper provides an order-of-rnagnitude assessment of the marginal social costs of greenhouse gas emissions. Re calculations are based on a stochastic greenhouse damage model in which key parameters are random. This allows a closer representation of current scientific understanding and also enables calculation of a damage probability distribution. Thus, we account explicitly for the uncertain nature of the global warming phenomenon. We estimate social costs of CO2 emissions in the order of 20 $/tC for emissions between 1991 and 2000, a value which rises over time to about 28 $/tC in 2021-2030. Similar figures for CH4 and N2O are also provided. As a consequence of the prevailing uncertainty, the standard deviation of the estimates is rather high. The distribution is positively skewed, which implies that the currently predominant method of using best guess values will lead to an underestimation of the expected costs of emissions.



The Role of Energy in Productivity Growth: A Controversial Issue?

Luis R. Murillo-Zamorano

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No2-4
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Abstract:
The main objective of this paper is to clarify the controversial role of energy in productivity growth. This is done by reconciling conventional approaches to the measurement of aggregated productivity growth with the microeconomic foundations provided by the energy economics and frontier productivity measurement literature. The use of Malmquist productivity indices allows us to broaden previous research by decomposing productivity growth into technological progress and technical efficiency change as well as analysing the relationship between energy and both sources of productivity change. By doing so, our findings are that energy indeed matters and that the consideration of technical efficiency contributes to a better understanding of both the temporal evolution and cross-country variability of aggregated productivity growth.





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