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Stranded Asset Risk and Political Uncertainty: The Impact of the Coal Phase-Out on the German Coal Industry

Miriam Breitenstein, Carl-Philipp Anke, Duc Khuong Nguyen, and Thomas Walther

Year: 2022
Volume: Volume 43
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.5.mbre
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Abstract:
We assess the value of stranded coal-fired power plants in Germany in the light of the critical decision to phase them out by 2038. In a Monte Carlo simulation, the scenarios under consideration (slow decommissioning at the end of the technical lifetime in 2061, the highly probable phase-out by 2038, and an accelerated phase-out by 2030) are additionally assigned distributions to display the uncertainty of future developments. The results show an overall stranded asset value of €2.6 billion given the phase-out by 2038 and an additional €11.6 billion if the phase-out is brought forward by 8 years. This study also describes the impacts of carbon pricing and the feed-in from renewable energy sources on the merit order and eventually the deterioration in economic conditions for hard coal and lignite power plants. Lastly, we discuss the immediate concerns for the share prices of the affected companies and help to close the research gap regarding stranded physical and financial assets.



Long-term Energy Policy vs. Dynamic Public Preferences? A Review of German Energy Policy

Christina Kockel, Jakob Kulawik, Saskia Spiegelburg, and Aaron Praktiknjo

Year: 2024
Volume: Volume 45
Number: Special Issue
DOI:
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Abstract:
During the energy crisis peaking in 2022, numerous countries have implemented short-term and immediate policy measures to reinforce security of energy supply and lower energy prices, often at the expense of environmental compatibility. This can be considered a sudden shift in the relative prioritization among these three energy policy goals. However, the sudden political rearrangement of energy policy priorities during the energy crisis in 2022 is only one illustration of a rapid shift. Historically, abrupt changes in public opinion have also prompted short-term adjustments in energy policy. This paper focuses on the dynamic relationship between public opinion and energy policy using the case of Germany. Specifically, we examine the relationship between changing public preferences and energy policy reaction regarding three significant events: the phase-out of nuclear energy, the phase-out of coal-fired power and heat generation, and the recent energy crisis in 2022. Our paper aims to assess the extent to which short-term shifts in public preferences can be aligned with efficient long-term planning of the energy system and identify the potential challenges that may arise during the process.





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