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The Cost of Slowing Climate Change: a Survey

William D. Nordhaus

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-4
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Abstract:
Policies to deal effectively and efficiently with the threat of greenhouse warming must balance the costs of slowing climate change against the potential damages. This survey discusses one half of this question, the costs of slowing climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The analysis provides estimates of the cost of reducing chlorofluorocarbon and CO2 emissions, and inquires into the costs of using forestry options to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. A promising new approach, the use ofgeoengineering, is discussed qualitatively.



ITC in a Global Growth-Climate Model with CCS: The Value of Induced Technical Change for Climate Stabilization

Reyer Gerlagh

Year: 2006
Volume: Endogenous Technological Change
Number: Special Issue #1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI1-11
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Abstract:
We assess the effect of ITC in a global growth model, � DEMETER-1CCS � with learning-by-doing, where energy savings, energy transition and carbon capturing and sequestration (CCS) are the three main options for emissions reductions. The model accounts for technological change based on learning by doing, embodied in capital installed in previous periods. We run five scenarios: one baseline scenario with no climate change policy and four stabilization scenarios in which atmospheric CO2 concentrations are stabilized at 550, 500, 450, and 400 ppmv. We find that the timing of emissions reductions and the investment strategy is relatively independent of the endogeneity of technological change. More important is the vintages� structure of production. ITC does reduce costs by approximately a factor of 2, however, these benefits only materialize after some decades.



Carbon Sequestration in Global Forests Under Different Carbon Price Regimes

Brent Sohngen and Roger Sedjo

Year: 2006
Volume: Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy
Number: Special Issue #3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-6
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Abstract:
This paper examines the potential role of carbon sequestration in forests under a range of exogenously chosen carbon price paths. The price paths were chosen to simulate several different climate change policies. The results indicate that global sequestration could range from 48�147 Pg C by 2105 for carbon prices ranging from $100 to more than $800 per t C by the end of the century. The timing of sequestration is found to be sensitive to the assumed carbon price path. Low initial carbon prices ($10 - $20 per t C in 2010) followed by rapid price increases, as might occur if policy makers try to stabilize future concentrations, suggest little, if any, sequestration during the next 20 years (-0.2 to 4.5 Pg C). If policy makers develop policies that support higher initial carbon prices, ranging from $75 to $100 per t C, 17 to 23 Pg C could be sequestered in forests over the next 20 years. Overall, our results indicate that forestry is not an efficient stopgap measure for long-term policy goals, but that it is instead an important long-term partner with other mitigation options.



The Timing of Biological Carbon Sequestration and Carbon Abatement in the Energy Sector Under Optimal Strategies Against Climate Risks

Vincent Gitz, Jean-Charles Hourcade and Philippe Ciais

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No3-7
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Abstract:
This paper addresses the timing of the use of biological carbon sequestration and its capacity to alleviate the carbon constraint on the energy sector. We constructed a stochastic optimal control model balancing the costs of fossil emission abatement, the opportunity costs of lands allocated to afforestation, and the costs of uncertain climate damages. We show that a minor part of the sequestration potential should start immediately as a "brake", slowing down both the rate of growth of concentrations and the rate of abatement in the energy sector, thus increasing the option value of the emission trajectories. But, most of the potential is put in reserve to be used as a "safety valve" after the resolution of uncertainty, if a higher and faster decarbonization is required: sequestration cuts off the peaks of costs of fossil abatement and postpones the pivoting of the energy system by up to two decades.





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