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Growth and Welfare Losses from Carbon Emissions Restrictions: A General Equilibrium Analysis for Egypt

Charles Blitzer, Richard Eckaus, Supriya Lahiri, and Alexander Meeraus

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No1-3
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Abstract:
This paper assesses the economic effects of carbon emission restrictions in Egypt.Like other studies, it is an exemplification of some of the economic possibilitiesunder various conditions. However, it extends the domain of possibilities andsuggests some issues that have not been considered in other studies.It is demonstrated clearly that, while annual emissions constraints have only a modest effect on long-run economic growth rates, they have substantial effect on the achieved levels of GDP and welfare. These results do not change much, even with backstop and unconventional technologies or change in discounting. However, postponing the imposition of constraints does have a significant effect, as does changing the form of the constraints to one based on accumulated emissions.



The Kyoto Protocol: An Economic Analysis Using GTEM

Vivek Tulpule, Stephen Brown, Jaekyu Lim, Cain Polidano, Horn Pant and Brian S. Fisher

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-11
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Abstract:
In this paper ABARE's Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) is used to analyse the potential of international emissions trading as a mechanism for helping to achieve the abatement commitments agreed to in the Kyoto Protocol. The prospect of two emission trading blocs, one consisting of the European Union and eastern Europe and the other consisting of many of the remaining Annex I regions, is also considered. The analysis shows that the carbon penalty varies significantly across regions when no emissions trading is allowed. In aggregate, the cost of abatement to Annex I regions falls with emissions trading.Under the assumption of the two trading blocs, the carbon penalty in the European bloc is higher than with full Annex I trading. The paper also considers the impact on developing countries and the role of carbon leakage in determining the economic impacts on Annex I regions.



Early Emission Reduction Programs: An Application to CO2 Policy

Ian W.H. Parry and Michael Toman

Year: 2002
Volume: Volume23
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol23-No1-4
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Abstract:
In the wake of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which if implemented would oblige industrialized countries to meet targets for greenhouse gases (GHGs) In 2008-2012, there have been several proposals to reduce emissions during the interim period. A concern for early reduction also arises in other policy contexts. This paper uses a series of simple models and numerical illustrations to analyze voluntary early reduction credits for GHGs. We examine several issues that affect the economic performance of these policies, including asymmetric information, learning-by-doing, and fiscal impacts, and we compare their performance with that of an early cap-and-trade program. We find that the economic benefits of early credit programs are likely to be limited, unless these credits can be banked to offset future emissions. Such banking was not allowed under the Kyoto Protocol. An early cap-and-trade program can avoid many of the problems of early credits, provided it does not require excessive abatement.



The Effect of Market Reforms on Structural Change: Implications for Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in China

Karen Fisher-Vanden

Year: 2003
Volume: Volume24
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No3-2
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Abstract:
This paper assesses the role played by market reforms in shaping the future level and composition of production, energy use, and carbon emissions in China. Arguments have been made that reducing distortions in China s economy through market reforms will lead to energy efficiency improvements and lower carbon emissions in China. However, these arguments are based on partial and not general equilibrium analyses, and therefore overlook the effects of market reforms on economic growth and structural change. The results suggest that further implementation of market reforms could result in a structural shift to less carbon-intensive production and thus lower carbon emissions per unit GDP. However, this fall in carbon intensity is not enough to compensate for the greater use of energy as a result of market reforms due to higher economic growth and changes in the composition of production. Therefore, China s transition to a market economy could result in significantly higher economic growth, energy use, and carbon emissions. These results could have implications for other countries considering or undergoing market transition.



The Costs of Kyoto for the US Economy

Terry Barker and Paul Ekins

Year: 2004
Volume: Volume 25
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No3-4
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Abstract:
The high costs for the US economy of mitigating climate change have been cited by the Bush administration as one of the reasons for rejecting US ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. A range of cost estimates are assessed in the IPCC s third report (2001), but they are hedged with so many qualifications that it is not easy to reach useful conclusions. This paper organises some of the quantitative information on costs of greenhouse gas mitigation for the US published before the US rejection of Kyoto. The aim is to put them in a wider context, e.g., allowing for non-climate benefits, and to draw conclusions that are robust in the face of the uncertainties. Important lessons can be drawn for how costs can be reduced in any future international commitment by the US to reduce emissions. Provided policies are expected, gradual and well designed (e.g., through auctioned Annex I tradable permits with revenues used to reduce burdensome tax rates) the net costs for the US of mitigation are likely to be insignificant, that is within the range +/-1% of GDP.



Options and Instruments for a Deep Cut in CO2 Emissions: Carbon Dioxide Capture or Renewables, Taxes or Subsidies?

Reyer Gerlagh and Bob van der Zwaan

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No3-3
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Abstract:
This paper compares both the main physical options and the principal policy instruments to realize a deep cut in carbon dioxide emissions necessary to control global climate change. A top-down energy-economy model is used that has three emission reduction options: energy savings, a transition towards less carbon-intensive or non-carbon energy resources, and the use of carbon dioxide capture and storage technology. Five policy instruments - carbon taxes, fossil fuel taxes, non-carbon (renewable) energy subsidies, a portfolio standard for the carbon intensity of energy production, and a portfolio standard for the use of non-carbon (renewable) energy resources - are compared in terms of costs, efficiency and their impact on the composition of the energy supply system. One of our main conclusions is that a carbon intensity portfolio standard, involving the recycling of carbon taxes to support renewables deployment, is the most cost-efficient way to address the problem of global climate change. A comprehensive introduction of the capture and storage of carbon dioxide would contribute to reducing the costs of climate change control, but would not obviate the large-scale need for renewables.



Should Automobile Fuel Economy Standards be Tightened?

Carolyn Fischer, Winston Harrington and Ian W.H. Parry

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No4-1
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Abstract:
This paper develops analytical and numerical models to explain and estimate the welfare effects of raising Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for new passenger vehicles. The analysis encompasses a wide range of scenarios concerning consumers valuation of fuel economy and the full economic costs of adopting fuel-saving technologies. It also accounts for, and improves estimates of, CAFE's impact on externalities from local and global pollution, oil dependence, traffic congestion and accidents. The bottom line is that it is difficult to make an airtight case either for or against tightening CAFE on pure efficiency grounds, as the magnitude and direction of the welfare change varies across different, plausible scenarios.



Technology Treaties and Fossil-Fuels Extraction

Jon Strand

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No4-6
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Abstract:
We consider some unintended effects of a technology treaty to increase the (stochastic) possibility of developing an energy alternative to fossil fuels which, when available, makes fossil fuels redundant. One implication of such a treaty is to increase the incentives for fossil-fuels producers to extract fossil fuels existing in given quantity more rapidly, under competition when the equilibrium price path for fossil fuels follows Hotelling�s rule. When the treaty may result in the new technology being immediately available, the expected resource extraction path is accelerated for an initial period, in simulations for 510 years, despite fossil fuels being phased out when the new technology appears. When there is a minimum (10-year) lag from treaty signing to technology implementation, expected extraction is speeded up for a longer period, 12-15 years. We discuss the implications of such treaties for global carbon emissions, which are not necessarily positive.



European Carbon Prices and Banking Restrictions: Evidence from Phase I (2005-2007)

Emilie Alberola and Julien Chevallier

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No3-3
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Abstract:
The price of European Union Allowances (EUAs) has been declining at far lower levels than expected during Phase I (2005-2007). Previous literature identifies among its main explanations over-allocation concerns, early abatement efforts in 2005, and possibly decreasing abatement costs in 2006. We advocate low allowance prices may also be explained by banking restrictions between 2007 and 2008. Based on a Hotelling-CAPM analysis, we provide statistical evidence that the French and Polish decisions to ban banking contribute to the explanation of low EUA Phase I prices. Besides, we provide the first rigorous empirical verification that the cost-of-carry relationship between EUA spot and futures prices for delivery during Phase II does not hold after the enforcement of the inter-period banking restrictions. This situation may be interpreted as a sacrifice of the temporal flexibility offered to industrials in Phase I to correct design inefficiencies, and achieve an efficient price pattern in Phase II.



Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies in the European Power Market

Rolf Golombek, Mads Greaker, Sverre A.C. Kittelsen, Ole Røgeberg, and Finn Roar Aune

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No3-8
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Abstract:
We examine the potential of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies in the European electricity markets, assessing whether CCS technologies will reduce carbon emissions substantially in the absence of investment subsidies, and how the availability of CCS technologies may affect electricity prices and the amount of renewable electricity. To this end we augment a multi-market equilibrium model of the European energy markets with CCS electricity technologies. The CCS technologies are characterized by costs and technical efficiencies synthesized from a number of recent CCS reviews. Our simulations indicate that with realistic values for carbon prices, new CCS coal power plants become profitable, totally replacing non-CCS coal power investments and to a large extent replacing new wind power. New CCS gas power also becomes profitable, but does not replace non-CCS gas power investment fully. Substantially lower costs, through subsidies on technological development or deployment, would be necessary to make CCS modification of existing coal and gas power plants profitable for private investors. doi: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No3-8




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