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Cutting CO2 Emissions: The Effects of Alternative Policy Approaches

John Whalley and Randall Wigle

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-7
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Abstract:
This paper starts from the premise that attempts to curtail global emissions of greenhouse gases are likely to be made in the next few decades. We discuss some of the possible international effects which could result from attempts to achieve such a cutback, and illustrate a methodology which we hope to extend, in subsequent work, to further evaluating the consequences of responding to the problem of global warming. We identify possible magnitudes of effects of cutting global CO2 emissions, and illustrate ways in which inter-country terms-of-trade effects and changes in trade patterns may occur.



International Trade in Oil, Gas and Carbon Emission Rights: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model

Alan S. Manne and Thomas F. Rutherford

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No1-4
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Abstract:
This paper employs a five-region intertemporal model to examine three issues related to carbon emission restrictions. First, we investigate the possible impact of such limits upon future oil prices. We show that carbon limits are likely to differ in their near- and long-term impact. Second, we analyze the problem of "leakage" which could arise if the OECD countries were to adopt unilateral limits upon carbon emissions. Third, we quantify some of the gainsfrom trade in carbon emission rights. Each of these issues have been studied before, but to our knowledge this is the first study based on a multi-regional, forward-looking model. We show that sequential joint maximization can be an effective way to compute equilibria for intertemporal general equilibrium models of international trade.



A Climate Treaty and the Norwegian Economy: A CGE Assessment

Anne Brendemoen and Haakon Vennemo

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No1-5
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Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of an international climate treaty on 61 single country-Norway. A disaggregate computable general equilibrium (CGE), model is used. We discuss the treaty's effects on main macroeconomic indicators, economic growth, distributional impacts, the impact on pollutant emissions other than CO2 and the secondary benefits of this reduction. The results suggest that CO2 emissions will decrease compared to the current level, The distributional impacts are modest. Increases in secondary benefits recoup almost one half of the loss in private consumption. We characterize the uncertainty of this estimate.



Tax Reform and Energy in the Philippines Economy: A General Equilibrium Computation

Roy G. Boyd, Khosrow Doroodian, and Prapassorn Udomvaech

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No2-8
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Abstract:
This paper examines how energy tax cuts, offset with income tax increases, affect production, consumption, and total welfare in the Philippines economy. Our results show that energy tax cuts expand the energy and nonmetal mining sectors, but decrease output in the manufacturing, agricultural, and metal mining sectors. Consumption o all goods and services combined increases as the amount of energy tax reduction increases. Our welfare results, however, are mixed. Mile the welfare of the mid- and high-income levels increases, that of the lowest income level decreases. These results are robust with respect to changes in the elasticity of substitution in energy production as well as the elasticity of substitution in consumer demand. From the standpoint of economic efficiency, a policy such as this would enhance growth and aggregate income. From an equity standpoint, however, this policy is highly regressive in spite of the fact that the richest households pay proportionately more to finance the energy tax reduction.



Computable Equilibrium Models and the Restructuring of the European Electricity and Gas Markets

Yves Smeers

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume18
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No4-1
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Abstract:
More regulation, not less, is temporarily necessary, if effective, competition is to be established in network industries. This paradox places new requirements on computable models: they should provide realistic descriptions of technologies but also of markets and institutions. Industrial economics and computation of economic equilibrium can help achieve this dual requirement. This paper discusses their potential in the context of the deregulation of the European gas and electricity sectors. Some key elements of the European legislative process are first presented in order to point out the diversity of institutions that can emerge and to highlight the need to model institutions. Perfect competition equilibrium models although institutionally poor are argued to be useful for ex post analysis. Applications of the standard Cournot and' Bertrand paradigms in ex ante analysis of gas and electricity markets are reviewed next. Models combining market power and externalities are then discussed with reference to electricity restructuring. Finally multistage equilibrium models are introduced in the context of investment in gas and electricity. Computation remarks conclude the paper.



Adjustment Time, Capital Malleability and Policy Cost

Henry D. Jacoby and Ian Sue Wing

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-4
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Abstract:
The cost of meeting Kyoto-style emissions reductions is heavily dependent on the malleability of an economy's stock of capital and the number of years available for adjustment. Each year of delay introduces more emissionproducing activities that must be squeezed out of the system and shortens the time horizon for change, raising the carbon price required to produce the needed changes in capital structure. The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Assessment model is used to explore the effects of uncertainty in the degree of capital malleability in the short run, and to analyze how implied carbon prices vary depending on the time of credible commitment to emissions targets.



Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policy in the United States: Identifying Winners and Losers in an Expanded Permit Trading System

Adam Rose and Gbadebo Oladosu

Year: 2002
Volume: Volume23
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol23-No1-1
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Abstract:
We present an analysis of the economic impacts of marketable permits for greenhouse gas reduction across industries and income groups in the United States. A computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate permit markets under various assumptions about permit allocations, industry coverage, revenue recycling, sequestration, and the inclusion of multiple greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that a permit price of as much as $128 per ton carbon would be needed to comply with the full U.S. Kyoto commitment, and that this would lead to a slightly more than I percent reduction in GDP in the year 2010. Expansion of trading to include carbon sequestration and methane mitigation can significantly lower these impacts. However, all policy alternatives simulated are somewhat regressive in terms of income distribution, though to significantly different degrees depending on the policy design.



Climate Politics from Kyoto to Bonn: From Little to Nothing?

Christoph Bohringer

Year: 2002
Volume: Volume23
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol23-No2-2
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Abstract:
We investigate how the U.S. withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and the provisions of the Bonn climate Policy conference on sink credits and emissions trading will change the economic and environmental impacts of the Protocol in its original form. Based on simulations with a large-scale computable general equilibrium model, we find that the U.S. withdrawal and amendments of Bonn reduce the Kyoto Protocol's impact to business-as-usual without binding emission constraints. U.S. compliance under the new Bonn provisions, on the other hand, would accommodate a substantial cut in global emissions at relatively small compliance costs for OECD countries.



The Effect of Market Reforms on Structural Change: Implications for Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in China

Karen Fisher-Vanden

Year: 2003
Volume: Volume24
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No3-2
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Abstract:
This paper assesses the role played by market reforms in shaping the future level and composition of production, energy use, and carbon emissions in China. Arguments have been made that reducing distortions in China s economy through market reforms will lead to energy efficiency improvements and lower carbon emissions in China. However, these arguments are based on partial and not general equilibrium analyses, and therefore overlook the effects of market reforms on economic growth and structural change. The results suggest that further implementation of market reforms could result in a structural shift to less carbon-intensive production and thus lower carbon emissions per unit GDP. However, this fall in carbon intensity is not enough to compensate for the greater use of energy as a result of market reforms due to higher economic growth and changes in the composition of production. Therefore, China s transition to a market economy could result in significantly higher economic growth, energy use, and carbon emissions. These results could have implications for other countries considering or undergoing market transition.



Is International Emissions Trading Always Beneficial?

Mustafa Babiker, John Reilly and Laurent Viguier

Year: 2004
Volume: Volume 25
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No2-2
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Abstract:
Economic efficiency is a major argument for international emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol. We show that permit trading can be welfare decreasing for countries, even though private trading parties benefit. The result is a case of "immiserizing" growth in the sense of Bhagwati where the negative terms of trade and tax interaction effects wipe out the gains from trading. Simulation and welfare decomposition results based on a CGE model of the global economy show that under EU-wide trading countries that are net permit sellers generally lose, due primarily to the existence of distortionary energy taxes.




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