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Navigating the Oil Bubble: A Non-linear Heterogeneous-agent Dynamic Model of Futures Oil Pricing

Giulio Cifarelli and Paolo Paesani

Year: 2021
Volume: Volume 42
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.5.gcif
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Abstract:
We investigate short-term futures oil pricing over the 2003–2019 time-period in order to analyze the bubble-like dynamics, which characterizes the 2007–2009 years according to a large body of recent literature. Our research, based on the LPPL methodology and a flexible three-agent model (hedgers, fundamentalist speculators and chartists), confirms the presence of a bubble price pattern, which we attribute to the strong destabilizing behavior of speculators. In our view, this can be related to incorrect interpretation of market signals (or to the inability of trading against the market), especially by fundamentalists, combined with imitation across different categories of agents. This sets off positive feedback reactions along with self-reinforced herding of the kind best detected by the LPPL methodology.



Cryptocurrency Bubble on the Systemic Risk in Global Energy Companies

Qiang Ji, Ronald D. Ripple, Dayong Zhang, and Yuqian Zhao

Year: 2022
Volume: Volume 43
Number: Special issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.SI1.qiji
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Abstract:
Financialization has brought new challenges to the international energy markets, making energy systemic risk a more complicated issue. One of the important features is the development of cryptocurrency, which has become a critical part of the global financial markets. As a consequence, the rise and fall of cryptocurrency can have nonnegligible impacts on the systemic risks in the international energy sector. This paper empirically tests this hypothesis using the equity data of the top 100 energy companies from 2014 to 2021. Specifically, we explore the extreme shocks of cryptocurrency using multiple bubble tests, and then we test to what extent bubbles in cryptocurrency markets can affect systemic risk in the energy sector. Our empirical results show that the formation of cryptocurrency bubbles, especially when the bubbles burst, significantly increases systemic risks in the energy sector. This effect retains the same in the recent COVID-19 pandemic period. In addition, oil and gas companies play an essential channel in the risk spillover from cryptocurrency markets to the international energy markets.





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