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The Relationship Between Energy Intensity and Income Levels: Forecasting Long Term Energy Demand in Asian Emerging Countries

Rossana Galli

Year: 1998
Volume: Volume19
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-4
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This paper analyses long-term trends in energy intensity for ten Asian emerging countries to test for a non-monotonic relationship between energy intensity and income in our sample. We estimate energy demand functions during 1973 1990 using a quadratic function of log income. We find that the long-run coefficient on squared income is negative and significant, indicating a change in trend of energy intensity. We then use our estimates to evaluate a medium-term forecast of energy demand in the Asian countries, using both a log-linear and a quadratic model. We find that in medium to high income countries the quadratic model performs better than the log-linear, with an average error of 9% against 43% in 1995. For the region as a whole, the quadratic model appears more adequate with a forecast error of 16% against 28% in 1995. These results are consistent with a process of dematerialization, which occurs as a result of a reduction of resource use per unit of GDP once an economy passes some threshold level of GDP per capita.

Analysis of Post-Kyoto Scenarios: The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

Mikiko Kainuma, Yuzuru Matsuoka and Tsuneyuki Morita

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-9
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The AIM/top-down model is a recursive general equilibrium model used to analyze the post-Kyoto scenarios presented by EMF16. Differences among scenarios mainly arise from the setting of emission trading. Japan's marginal cost is the highest among the Annex I countries except New Zealand, where a relatively high emission reduction is necessary, while the highest GDP loss Is observed in the USA in 2010 in the no trading case. The marginal costs are much less in the global trading case. The countries of the former Soviet Union sell emission rights and the USA buys the largest amount of them. Emission reductions by trading will account for a large part of the total emission reductions if there is no restriction on trading. The GDP gain of the former Soviet Union is the largest in 2010 in the trading cases. The GDP change in Middle East Asia is negative, and reaches the highest level in the no trading case. Carbon leakage is particularly observed in the no trading case.

Asian Spot Prices for LNG and other Energy Commodities

Abdullahi Alim, Peter R. Hartley, and Yihui Lan

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.1.aali
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We investigate the relationship between the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) price of LNG, which has become more important as spot trading of LNG has increased, and spot prices of Brent oil, fuel oil and thermal coal in Asia. We find that the JKM price appears to reflect inter-fuel competition in Asia. In this respect, it could be better than oil or other spot natural gas prices as a reference price for indexing long-term LNG contracts in Asia. The JKM may also be suitable for underpinning the development of an LNG pricing hub in Asia with associated derivatives markets.

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