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Analysis of Post-Kyoto Scenarios: The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

Mikiko Kainuma, Yuzuru Matsuoka and Tsuneyuki Morita

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-9
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Abstract:
The AIM/top-down model is a recursive general equilibrium model used to analyze the post-Kyoto scenarios presented by EMF16. Differences among scenarios mainly arise from the setting of emission trading. Japan's marginal cost is the highest among the Annex I countries except New Zealand, where a relatively high emission reduction is necessary, while the highest GDP loss Is observed in the USA in 2010 in the no trading case. The marginal costs are much less in the global trading case. The countries of the former Soviet Union sell emission rights and the USA buys the largest amount of them. Emission reductions by trading will account for a large part of the total emission reductions if there is no restriction on trading. The GDP gain of the former Soviet Union is the largest in 2010 in the trading cases. The GDP change in Middle East Asia is negative, and reaches the highest level in the no trading case. Carbon leakage is particularly observed in the no trading case.



Assessment of CO2 Reductions and Economic Impacts Considering Energy-Saving Investments

Toshihiko Masui, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Saeko Hikita, and Mikiko Kainuma

Year: 2006
Volume: Endogenous Technological Change
Number: Special Issue #1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI1-8
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Abstract:
Using a global dynamic optimization model that includes a notion of endogenous energy-saving investments, economic impacts and energy-system changes are assessed under several policy cases where CO2 concentration is stabilized at the 450, 500, and 550 ppm levels by the year 2100. The effect of increased investments in energy-saving technologies on energy efficiency is derived exogenously from results of the AIM/Enduse model applied to Japan, then endogenized in the global dynamic optimization model.We find that with diffusion of energy-saving technologies, GDP loss during the 21st century falls from 2.5% to 2.1% in the 450 ppm case. The impact is small for the 550 ppm case, however, because a shift to low-carbon-intensive energies such as gas and renewable energies does not occur to a significant extent under this target.





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