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Understanding the Crude Oil Price: How Important Is the China Factor?

Xiaoyi Mu and Haichun Ye

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No4-5
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Abstract:
This paper employs monthly data on China's net oil import from January 1997 to June 2010 to assess the role of China's net import in the evolution of the crude oil price. Based on a vector autoregression (VAR) analysis, we find that the growth of China's net oil import has no significant impact on monthly oil price changes and there is no Granger causality between the two variables. The historical decomposition indicates that shocks to China's oil demand have only played a small role in the oil price run-up of 2002-2008. We also calculate the price changes implied by China's net oil import growth from a longer-term supply and demand shift perspective.



Small Trends and Big Cycles in Crude Oil Prices

Xiaoyi Mu and Haichun Ye

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.1.3
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Abstract:
We employ an unobserved components model to disentangle the long-term trend from cyclical movements in the price of internationally traded crude oil using data from 1861 to 2010. The in-sample estimation of the model identifies a deterministic quadratic trend and two types of cycles, with the short cycle having a period of 6 years and the long cycle of 29 years. Compared to the large amplitude of the cycles, the growth rate of the long-term trend is small. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of various competing models is compared to that of a "no change" random walk forecast. While the random walk forecast tends to be the most accurate at shorter horizons, it is outperformed by the trend-cycle models at horizons longer than one year. The results provide evidence of predictability in the price of crude oil at long horizons.



Willingness to Pay for Climate Change Mitigation: Evidence from China

Yujie Li, Xiaoyi Mu,Anita Schiller, and Baowei Zheng

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: China Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.SI1.yli
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Abstract:
China has become the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world. However, the Chinese public's willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation is, at best, under-researched. This study draws upon a large national survey of Chinese public cognition and attitude towards climate change and analyzes the determinants of consumers' WTP for energy-efficient and environment-friendly products. Eighty-five percent of respondents indicate that they are willing to pay at least 10 percent more than the market price for these products. The econometric analysis indicates that income, education, age and gender, as well as public awareness and concerns about climate change are significant factors influencing WTP. Respondents who are more knowledgeable and more concerned about the adverse effect of climate change show higher WTP. In comparison, income elasticity is small. The results are robust to different model specifications and estimation techniques.



Towards an Integrated Spot LNG Market: An Interim Assessment

Xiaoyi Mu and Haichun Ye

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.1.xmu
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Abstract:
This paper examines whether, and to what extent, the spot LNG markets in different regions (East Asia, Iberia, Northwest Europe, and South America) are integrated and how market integration evolves over time. We first lay out a framework of market integration in the context of global LNG market where the main supplier (e.g. Qatar) may have market power. Estimating a time-varying coefficients model, we find that a varying degree of market integration exists between all four LNG indices particularly after the Fukushima incident in 2011. We complement the time-varying coefficient analysis with a test of price convergence among the LNG indices using the Phillips-Sul (2007) methodology. The results reveal that, there is strong evidence that the spot LNG prices are converging after the Fukushima accident and they are also converging with the price of NBP in the UK. The empirical result is consistent with the change of market power of the main supplier.





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