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Oil Stockpiling: Help Thy Neighbor

William W. Hogan

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No3-4
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Abstract:
Saudi benevolence apart, a large inventory of oil is the most effective emergency tool that oil-importing nations could fashion. Long ago, Joseph advised the Pharaoh to prepare for famine by storing during times of plenty. Today virtually every study of policy options for oil supply emergencies emphasizes the value of building and using a large stock of oil to cushion the effects of a sudden loss in supply. And among the array of official pronouncements and promises, oil stockpiling stands out as the most visible and substantial arena of government activity in energy policy, where new institutions and resources have been deployed in the halting beginnings of a coordinated international stockpiling program. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and similar efforts have achieved primacy in the analysis and implementation of oil emergency policy.



Energy and Economy: Global Interdependences

William W. Hogan

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No4-2
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Abstract:
This meeting, the Seventh International Conference of the International Association of Energy Economists (IAEE), finds us again in the midst of transitions in energy markets. Continued adjustments in oil demand, natural gas bubbles in Europe and North America, closures of refineries, and concerns about acid rain are just a few of the issues that reflect the turbulence and continued change in energy concerns and policy. This list of challenges suggests opportunities for energy economists to contribute their special perspectives to the clarification of issues and options. At an international conference, we can reinforce communications across national boundaries as we consider our related problems.



Special Feature's an Oil Tariff Justified? An American Debate

Arlon R. Tussing, Samuel A. Van Vactor, Harry G. Broadman, William W. Hogan, Dale M. Nesbitt and Thomas Y. Choi

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No3-1
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Abstract:
I. Reality Says No, Arlon R. Tussing and Samuel A. Van VactorII. The Numbers Say Yes, Harry G. Broadman and William W. HoganIII. The Numbers Say No, Dale M. Nesbitt and Thomas Y. ChoiMany oil industry spokesmen who pleaded for a free market in the era of regulation are now urging the opposite: federal protection from low-cost imported oil. It is ironic that some economists should find merit in these arguments, particularly now that the very idea of free trade is facing the most serious assault in decades.



Comments on Manne and Richels: "CO2 Emission Limits: An Economic Analysis for the USA"

William W. Hogan

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-4
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Abstract:
This paper evaluates the Global 2100 model application on global warming by A. S. Manne and R G. Richels, which is presented in this edition of The Energy Journal The paper discusses Manne and Richels's general analytical framework, the Global 2100 model; and Manne and Richels's exploration of international interdependence, benefit calculations, and the uncertainty which must necessarily accrue to any discussion of global warming. The paper suggests that cost-benefit analyses, such as the one provided by Manne and Richels, are necessary for policy recommendations. Differences in regional impacts of global warming are noted. The paper concludes that Manne and Richels's study is very worthwhile and pleads for further studies.



Productivity Trends and the Cost of Reducing CO2 Emissions

William W. Hogan and Dale W. Jorgenson

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-5
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Abstract:
Adequate control of CO2 emissions may require a significant increase in energy price, which in turn wilt create long-term economic costs. This paper explores the effects of long-term productivity trends in the U.S. economy and relates them to the cost of reducing CO2 emissions. Technology change has been negatively correlated with energy prices and positively correlated with materials prices. Thus, if all prices remain constant expenditures on materials per unit of output will decline, and expenditures on energy per unity of output will increase. If energy prices increase, the rate of productivity growth will decrease. This trend will be very small, if measured on an annual basis, but eventually could be quite significant. A comparison with recent cost estimates of CO2 emission control suggests that this otherwise ignored productivity effect could be the largest component of a complete cost analysis.



OECD Oil Demand Dynamics: Trends and Asymmetries

William W. Hogan

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No1-6
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Abstract:
Oil market data of the 1980s reject a simple, symmetric reduced-form model of dynamic oil demand in the OECD countries. Tests of price asymmetric long-run demand models produce ambiguous results. The pooled time series estimations find near unitary output elasticities, and reject linear demand models in favor of constant elasticity formulations. Despite large differences in product prices and crude prices, the data cannot reject use of a crude price model fir aggregate oil demand. A reduced-form model symmetric in product prices but with technology trends for non-price oil conservation compares favorably with other formulations, and provides slightly lower projections of future oil demand intensity. However, even these lower econometric projections imply substantial increases in aggregate oil demand, increases which exceed those found in the conventional judgmental estimates.



Markets in Real Electric Networks Require Reactive Prices

William W. Hogan

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume14
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No3-8
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Abstract:
Differences in locational spot prices in an electric network provide the natural measure of the price for transmission. The ubiquitous problem of loop flow requires different economic intuition for interpreting the implications of spot pricing. The DC-Load model is the usual approximation for estimating spot prices, although it ignores reactive power effects. This approximation is best when thermal constraints create congestion in the network. In the presence of voltage constraints, the DC-Load model is insufficient, and the full AC-Model is required to determine both real and reactive power spot prices.



A Market Power Model with Strategic Interaction in Electricity Networks

William W. Hogan

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume18
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No4-5
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Abstract:
When transmission constraints limit the flow of power in an electric network, there are likely to be strong interaction effects across different parts of the system. A model of imperfect competition with strategic interactions in an electricity transmission network illustrates a possible exercise of market power that differs from the usual analysis of imperfect competition in more familiar product markets. Large firms could exercise horizontal market power by increasing their own production, lowering some prices, and exploiting the necessary feasibility constraints in the network to foreclose competition from others. This behavior depends on the special properties of electric networks, and reinforces the need for market analysis with more realistic network models.



Cross-product Manipulation in Electricity Markets, Microstructure Models and Asymmetric Information

Chiara Lo Prete, William W. Hogan, Bingyuan Liu, and Jia Wang

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.5.cpre
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Abstract:
Electricity market manipulation enforcement actions have moved from conventional analysis of generator market power in real-time physical markets to materialallegations of sustained cross-product price manipulation in forward financial markets. A major challenge is to develop and apply forward market analyticalframeworks and models. This task is more difficult than for the real-time market. An adaptation of cross-product manipulation models from cash-settled financialmarkets provides an existence demonstration under uncertainty and asymmetric information. The implications of this analysis include strong empirical predictionsabout necessary randomized strategies that are not likely to be observed or sustainable in electricity markets. Absent these randomized strategies and othermarket imperfections, the means for achieving sustained forward market price manipulation remains unexplained.





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