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Emissions Trading, Capital Flows and the Kyoto Protocol

Warwick J. McKibbin, Martin T. Ross, Robert Shackleton and Peter J. Wilcoxen

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-12
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Abstract:
We use an econometrically estimated multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model of the world economy to examine the effects of the tradable emissions permit system proposed in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, under various assumptions about the extent of international permit trading. We focus, in particular, on the effects of the system on international trade and capital flows. Our results suggest that consideration of these flows significantly affects estimates of the domestic effects of the emissions mitigation policy, compared with analyses that ignore international capital flows.



Subsidizing Household Capital: How Does Energy Efficiency Policy Compare to a Carbon Tax?

Warwick J. McKibbin, Adele C. Morris, and Peter J. Wilcoxen

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-SI1-7
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Abstract:
This study uses a general equilibrium model to compare environmental and economic outcomes of two policies: (1) a tax credit of 10 percent of the price of household capital that is 20 percent more energy efficient than its unsubsidized counterpart, assuming half of new household investment qualifies for the credit; and (2) a tax starting at $30 ($2007) per metric ton of CO2 rising five percent annually. By 2040, the carbon tax and tax credit reduce emissions by about 601.5 percent, respectively. Assuming other countries impose no carbon price, we find that although the carbon tax reduces U.S. GDP, it improves U.S. household welfare because it reduces world fuel prices, strengthens U.S. terms of trade, and makes imports cheaper. The revenue neutral tax credit reduces welfare but boosts U.S. GDP growth slightly at first. Both policies have similar impacts on the federal budget, but of opposite signs.





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