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International Trade in Oil, Gas and Carbon Emission Rights: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model

Alan S. Manne and Thomas F. Rutherford

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No1-4
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Abstract:
This paper employs a five-region intertemporal model to examine three issues related to carbon emission restrictions. First, we investigate the possible impact of such limits upon future oil prices. We show that carbon limits are likely to differ in their near- and long-term impact. Second, we analyze the problem of "leakage" which could arise if the OECD countries were to adopt unilateral limits upon carbon emissions. Third, we quantify some of the gainsfrom trade in carbon emission rights. Each of these issues have been studied before, but to our knowledge this is the first study based on a multi-regional, forward-looking model. We show that sequential joint maximization can be an effective way to compute equilibria for intertemporal general equilibrium models of international trade.



Effects of Restrictions on International Permit Trading: The MS-MRT Model

Paul M. Bernstein, W. David Montgomery, Thomas F. Rutherford and Gui-Fang Yang

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-10
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Abstract:
This paper assesses the economic impacts of carbon abatement programs proposed under the Kyoto protocol: the distribution of economic burden across countries and regions, the implications for international competitiveness, and the consequences of international permit trading. Our analysis is based on a dynamic global trade model which accounts for systematic differences in the energy efficiency of production in industrial and developing countries. Emission limits adversely affect the welfare of industrial and some developing countries, including all of the oil-exporting countries. Imports from Annex-B countries become more costly while demand for most developing country exports is reduced. Oil prices simultaneously fall, so the net impact on oil-importing developing countries is ambiguous. Energy-intensive industries have a strong economic incentive to relocate production to low-energy cost developing countries. Global trading in emission rights provides the lowest cost path to Kyoto, but it is unclear whether there are incentives for all non-Annex B countries to participate.



The Economic Effects of Border Measures in Subglobal Climate Agreements

Mustafa H. Babiker and Thomas F. Rutherford

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No4-6
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Abstract:
The Kyoto agreement as originally drafted sought to mitigate anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through policy measures by most industrialized countries. It now seems likely that the agreement will be ratified and implemented without the participation of the United States. Any emissions abatement policies which have a measurable reduction in global emissions will induce changes in the terms of trade and comparative advantage and competitiveness To the extent that aggressive policies are undertaken to reduce CO2 emissions, there are likely to be strong calls in the Kyoto coalition for greenhouse-gas related border adjustment measures. This paper uses a multi-region, multi-commodity static general equilibrium model to quantify and assess the implications of such policies.



Efficiency Gains from "What"-Flexibility in Climate Policy An Integrated CGE Assessment

Christoph Bohringer, Andreas Loschel and Thomas F. Rutherford

Year: 2006
Volume: Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy
Number: Special Issue #3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-21
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Abstract:
We investigate the importance of �what�-flexibility on top of �where�- and �when�-flexibility for alternative emission control schemes that prescribe long-term temperature targets and eventually impose additional constraints on the rate of temperature change. We find that �what�-flexibility substantially reduces the economic adjustment costs. When comparing policies that simply involve long-term temperature targets against more stringent strategies with constraints on the rate of temperature increase, it turns out that the latter involve much higher costs. The cost difference may be interpreted as additional insurance payments if climate damages should not only depend on absolute temperature change but also on the rate of temperature change.





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