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Identifying Distributed Generation and Demand Side Management Investment Opportunities

Thomas E. Hoff

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No4-4
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Abstract:
Distributed generation and targeted demand side management programs offer electric utilities alternatives to large transmission and distribution (T&P) system capacity investments. This paper presents a method to estimate how much a utility can afford to pay for these alternatives when the change in system capacity due to the distributed resource is constant from year to year and when there is no uncertainty. The method is concise, has intuitive appeal, has minimal data requirements, and is accurate when benchmarked against two existing case studies. Analysts who want to screen distributed resource investment opportunities with a minimal amount of effort will find the method particularly useful.



Using Distributed Resources to Manage Risks Caused by Demand Uncertainty

Thomas E. Hoff

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume 18
Number: Distributed Resources: Toward a New Paradigm of the Electricity Business
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-NoSI-4
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Abstract:
This paper presents a method to calculate the cost of satisfying transmission and distribution (T&D) system capacity needs as a function of investment modularity and lead-time. It accounts for the dynamic nature of demand uncertainty, the decision-maker's risk attitude, and the correlation between costs and firm profits. Results indicate that the modularity and short lead-times associated with the distributed resources can increase their attractiveness in comparison to long lead-time, large-scale T&D investments. Results also suggest that distributed resources can operate as a type of "load growth insurance" if demand growth is positively correlated with profits (so that costs are incurred when profits are high) and if the distributed resource costs are part of a larger portfolio that cannot be diversified.



The Potential Market for Photovoltaics and Other Distributed Resources in Rural Electric Cooperatives

Thomas E. Hoff and Matthew Cheney

Year: 2000
Volume: Volume21
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol21-No3-5
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Abstract:
In the United States, rural electric cooperatives have an aging distribution system (1 million miles of distribution wires were originally installed over 40 years ago) and a load density that is about one-tenth of the load density at other utilities. The result is that there may soon be a large market opportunity for photovoltaics (PV) and other distributed resources. This paper calculates the cost of replacing portions of the distribution system as it wears out with hybridPV systems, compares it to the cost of replacing the system with equivalent distribution system equipment, and selects the alternative with the lowest cost. Results suggest that there is a potential market of 500 MW to 950 MW of PV at a price of $3,000/kW (a 50 percent reduction over PV prices in 2000) and a corresponding fossil-based generation market size of 280 MW to 555 MW at a price of $1,000/kW The hybrid-PV systems could replace 7 percent to 16 percent of the miles of distribution system and could save co-ops $1.0 billion to $2.5 billion (present value).





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