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The objECTS Framework for integrated Assessment: Hybrid Modeling of Transportation

Son H. Kim, Jae Edmonds, Josh Lurz, Steven J. Smith, and Marshall Wise

Year: 2006
Volume: Hybrid Modeling
Number: Special Issue #2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI2-4
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Abstract:
Technology is a central issue for the global climate change problem, requiring analysis tools that can examine the impact of specific technologies within a long-term, global context. This paper describes the architecture of the ObjECTS-MiniCAM integrated assessment model, which implements a long-term, global model of energy, economy, agriculture, land-use, atmosphere, and climate change in a framework that allows the flexible incorporation of explicit technology detail. We describe the implementation of a �bottom-up� representation of the transportation sector as an illustration of this approach, in which the resulting hybrid model is fully integrated, internally consistent and theoretically compatible with the regional and global modeling framework. The analysis of the transportation sector presented here supports and clarifies the need for a comprehensive strategy promoting advanced vehicle technologies and an economy-wide carbon policy to cost-effectively reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector in the long-term.



Multi-Gas Forcing Stabilization with Minicam

Steven J. Smith and T.M.L. Wigley

Year: 2006
Volume: Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy
Number: Special Issue #3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-19
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Abstract:
This paper examines the role of climate forcing agents other than carbon dioxide using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model for both no-climatepolicy and policy emissions scenarios. Non-CO2 greenhouse-gas forcing is dominated by methane and tropospheric ozone. Assumptions about the prevalence of methane recovery and local air pollution controls in the no-policy cases are a critical determinant of methane and ozone-precursor emissions. When these factors are considered, emissions are substantially reduced relative to earlier estimates. This reduces their potential as climate mitigation agents through specific climate policies. Nevertheless, the addition of non-CO2 greenhouse gas and ozone precursor abatement options significantly reduces mitigation costs in the first half of the 21st century (by up to 40%) compared to the case where only CO2 abatement options are pursued. While the influences of aerosols are small by the end of the century, there is a significant interaction in the early 21st century between policies to reduce CO2 emissions and SO2 emissions, even in the presence of SO2-related pollution control policies. The attendant reduced aerosol cooling can more than offset the reduction in warming that accrues from reduced CO2. When non-CO2 gases are included in the policy, the net effect is that global-mean climate change to 2050 is practically unaffected by mitigation policy.



Climate Policy and the Long-Term Evolution of the U.S. Buildings Sector

Page Kyle, Leon Clarke, Fang Rong, and Steven J. Smith

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No2-6
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Abstract:
Buildings are the dominant driver of daily and seasonal electric load cycles, and account for 40 percent of U.S. final energy use. They account for roughly 10 percent of direct U.S. CO2 emissions and roughly 40 percent once indirect emissions from electricity generation are included. This paper explores the possible evolution of this sector over the coming century, its potential role in climate action and response to climate policies, and the potential benefits of advances in building technologies for addressing climate change. The paper presents a set of scenarios based on a detailed, service-based model of the U.S. buildings sector that is embedded within a long-term, global, integrated assessment model, MiniCAM. Eight scenarios are created in total, combining two sets of assumptions regarding U.S. building service demand growth, two sets of assumptions regarding the improvements in building energy technologies, and two assumptions regarding long-term U.S. climate action � a no-climate�action assumption and an assumption of market-based policies to reduce U.S. CO2 emissions consistent with a 450 ppmv global target. Through these eight scenarios, the paper comments on the implications of continued growth in building service demands, the ability of efficiency measures to reduce emissions, and the strong link between decarbonization of electricity generation and building sector emissions.



The Value of Advanced End-Use Energy Technologies in Meeting U.S. Climate Policy Goals

Page Kyle, Leon Clarke, Steven J. Smith, Son Kim, Mayda Nathan, and Marshall Wise

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-SI1-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
This study, a contribution to the EMF 25 scenarios on the role of energy efficiency in climate change mitigation, explores the value of technological improvement in the buildings, industry, and transportation sectors in meeting 2050 CO2 emissions mitigation targets in the United States. Six scenarios of future end-use technology evolution are analyzed without any future emissions mitigation policy, and with two linear emissions constraints that begin in 2012 and achieve 50% and 80% reductions from 1990 CO2 emissions levels in 2050.The scenarios show that end-use technologies are important for reducing near-term energy demand and CO2 emissions, and advanced transportation technologies in particular are important for allowing the energy system as a whole to achieve deep emissions reductions in a cost-effective manner. Total discounted economic costs of meeting the emissions constraints are reduced by up to 53% by advanced end-use technologies, and similar cost reductions are observed when the policies allow inter-temporal shifting in the emissions pathways (i.e., banking and borrowing). The scenarios highlight the importance of end-use technologies that facilitate electrification and decrease the direct use of hydrocarbon fuels through efficiency improvement, but we stress that end-use technology advancement should be complementary to technology advancement in energy supply.





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