Facebook LinkedIn Instagram Twitter
Shop
Search
Begin New Search
Proceed to Checkout

Search Results for All:
(Showing results 1 to 7 of 7)



Forecasting Ultimate Oil Recovery and Its Rate of Production: Incorporating Economic Forces into the Models of M. King Hubbert

Cutter J. Cleveland and Robert K. Kaufmann

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No2-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
Dwindling production of oil from domestic fields and rising consumption have increased U.S. dependence on imported oil to an all-time high. Concern about the effect of this dependence on economic and national security has focused attention on the domestic resource base: how much oil awaits discovery and at what rate can it be produced? We analyze the adequacy of domestic resources by updating and modifying in important new ways the models of discovery and production developed by M. King Hubbert. Hubbert's models have been a lightning rod for debate about the future of oil resources because they have been the most accurate on record. When we include real oil prices and the annual rate of drilling effort in Hubbert's model of oil discovery, there is no evidence for claims that the secular decline in discoveries per foot of well drilled has been arrested or reversed in the lower forty-eight states. Our results indicate that there is little oil waiting to be found in unexplored sedimentary formations in the lower forty-eight states using conventional exploration techniques. Furthermore, we show that the declining quality of the resource base has offset the positive stimuli of price increases and changes in government policy towards a free market. Having passed through a period in which production in the lower forty-eight states fell 20 percent while real oil prices tripled there seems little that the U.S. government can do to alter the bottom line for domestic operators so that U.S. production can displace imports to a significant degree. We conclude that the conventional supply side offers little room to manoeuvre around increased dependence on imported oil.



The Effects of NAFTA on the Environment

Robert K. Kaufmann, Peter Pauly and Julie Sweitzer

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume14
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No3-10
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper reviews the impacts of NAFTA on the environment. Discussion focuses on the degree to which economic conditions in Canada, Mexico, and United States are consistent with the assumptions on which the benefits of free trade are based. Specifically, we discuss how NAFTA may exacerbate or alleviate the environmental impacts of economic activity via environmental externalities, the rate and efficiency of resource extraction, increased income, increased trade and transportation, and harmonizing environmental policy among nations at different levels of economic development. Because of difficulties in comparing different types of environmental impacts, we do not offer a conclusion about the overall effect of NAFTA on the environment, positive or negative. Rather, we argue that NAFTA must preserve the rights of all affected parties to intervene so that the costs and benefits associated with a particular project that arises out of increased trade can be evaluated on a case by case basis in the same imperfect way that such issues are addressed within the confines of a single nation.



Natural Gas in the U.S.: How Far Can Technology Stretch the Resource Base?

Cutler J. Cleveland and Robert K. Kaufmann

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume18
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No2-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
We review the theoretical underpinnings of the exponential model, the amount of gas discovered per unit effort, a quantity called yield-per-effort (YPE), and estimate an econometric model that represents the historical determinants of the YPE for nonassociated gas discoveries in the lower 48 states from 1943 to 1991, the entire period for which the requisite data are available. Results indicate the YPE declines as the exponential function of cumulative drilling when short run changes in drilling effort, real gas prices, and shifts between onshore and offshore are accounted for. We explicitly test and reject the hypothesis that technological change has arrested or reversed the long run decline in YPE. We also discuss some alternative models of YPE that misrepresent the interplay of depletion and technical innovation, as well as the process of innovation itself, and the statistical and methodological shortcomings of the empirical analyses used to support several alternative models of YPE.



Oil Production in the Lower 48 States: Economic, Geological, and Institutional Determinants

Robert K. Kaufmann and Cutler J. Cleveland

Year: 2001
Volume: Volume22
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No1-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
In this paper, we establish an empirical model for oil production in the lower 48 states that represents its economic, physical, and institutional determinants. We estimate a vector error correction model for oil production in the lower 48 states that specifies real oil prices, average production costs, and prorationing by the Texas Railroad Commission. These modifications enable us to generate a model that accounts for most of the variation in oil production in the lower 48 states between 1938 and 1991. The result that oil production in the lower 48 states shares stochastic trends with real oil prices, average production costs, and prorationing indicates that accuracy of Hubbert's bell shaped curve is fortuitous. The importance of these factors also indicates why the basic Hotelling model cannot replicate the production path for oil in the lower 48 states. This inability is critical. The negative economic effects associated with high prices and energy shortages imply that the importance of inconsistencies with the basic Hotelling model identified by this analysis may be sufficient to warrant a greater degree of government intervention in the transition from oil than is currently envisioned by most policy makers.



The Mechanisms for Autonomous Energy Efficiency Increases: A Cointegration Analysis of the US Energy/GDP Ratio

Robert K. Kaufmann

Year: 2004
Volume: Volume 25
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No1-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
Many forecasts for energy use and carbon emissions assume that energy intensity will decline over time for reasons unrelated to energy prices, which are termed autonomous energy efficiency increases (AEEI). A cointegration analysis of a vector error correction model indicates that the types of fuels consumed, personal consumption expenditures spent on energy, and energy prices account for changes in the ratio of energy use to economic activity in the US between 1929 and 1999. Cointegration indicates that AEEI is associated with technical and/or structural changes which allow consumers to substitute oil, natural gas, and/or primary electricity for coal, and that shift energy use from final demand to intermediate sectors. Identifying the factors responsible for AEEI allows me to: (1) show that econometric efforts to measure technical change using a deterministic trend are inconsistent with economic theory and cannot be interpreted reliably; (2) show that modeling technical change with a deterministic trend may generate forecasts that overstate reductions in energy use and carbon emissions; and (3) test the observational record for the presence of price-induced technical change and its effect on economic growth. Together, the results indicate that current estimates for AEEI may overstate future reductions in energy use and that the economic impacts of policies to reduce energy use and slow emissions may have a greater effect on economic growth than anticipated currently.



Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices

Robert K. Kaufmann, Stephane Dees, Pavlos Karadeloglou and Marcelo Sanchez

Year: 2004
Volume: Volume 25
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No4-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
We assess claims that OPEC's ability to influence real oil prices has diminished and that the relationship between real oil prices and OPEC production can be used to test competing hypotheses about OPEC behavior. An econometric analysis indicates that there is a statistically significant relationship among real oil prices, OPEC capacity utilization, OPEC quotas, the degree to which OPEC exceeds these production quotas, and OECD stocks of crude oil. These variables "Granger cause" real oil prices but real oil prices do not "Granger cause" these variables. These results imply that OPEC influences oil prices and that previous models cannot be used to test competing models for OPEC production behavior. The effect of OECD oil stocks on real oil prices indicates that there may be an important externality in private decisions regarding optimal crude oil stocks.



Energy Prices and Turning Points: The Relationship between Income and Energy Use/Carbon Emissions

Amy K. Richmond and Robert K. Kaufmann

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No4-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Models used to test whether an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) can be used to describe the relationship between GDP and energy use and/or carbon emissions may be biased by the omission of energy prices. Here we include real energy prices and fuel shares in models that describe energy use and carbon emissions. We test if these models show a turning point in OECD countries. Results indicate that including energy prices eliminates statistical support for a turning point and suggest that the relationship between income and both energy use and carbon emissions is represented most accurately by diminishing returns. These results imply that economic growth per se will not reduce energy use or emissions that cause global climate change.





Begin New Search
Proceed to Checkout

 





function toggleAbstract(id) { alert(id); }