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Shocks and Stocks: A Bottom-up Assessment of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and the Returns of Chinese Firms

David C. Broadstock, Ying Fan, Qiang Ji, and Dayong Zhang

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: China Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.SI1.dbro
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Abstract:
Oil price shocks are known to affect the financial sector of the economy, due to the inflationary effects, and increasing costs of doing business they create. Though oil-shocks and financial markets are widely researched, there remains scope for deeper understanding using firm level data. We therefore contribute to the literature by extending widely applied multi-factor asset pricing models to a sample of 963 Chinese firms (between 2005-2013) to (i) systematically evaluate their reactions to oil price shocks, and (ii) further include regulated gasoline prices as a more direct measure of the energy-prices faced by firms. 89.2% of firms are susceptible to oil shocks, with positive and negative reactions observed even for firms within the same industry. Gasoline price shocks are more pervasive, affecting 95.7% of firms. Considering oil and gasoline separately allows us to review gasoline price regulation in China, which ultimately appears ineffective in achieving its intended goals.



China’s Natural Gas Demand Projections and Supply Capacity Analysis in 2030

Qiang Ji, Ying Fan, Mike Troilo, Ronald D. Ripple, and Lianyong Feng

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 6
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.6.qji
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Abstract:
This paper builds an econometric model to analyze the income elasticity and price elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand and forecasts China's natural gas demand up to 2030. The findings indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among sectoral natural gas demand, sectoral income and various fuel prices. The results also indicate that most price elasticities are smaller relative to developed countries; the effect of fuel prices on natural gas demand is partly offset by the government regulation. In the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, China's natural gas demand will reach 340 bcm and 528 bcm and its foreign dependence will reach 27.9% and 43.2% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The forecast and discussion in this paper provide important insights into China's energy policy design and pricing mechanism reform, and into the potential impact of China's growing natural gas demand on global energy market dynamics.





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