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Estimating Hourly Electric Load with Generalized Least Square Procedures

Chi-Keung Woo, Philip Hanser, and Nate Toyama

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No2-11
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Abstract:
Although electricity demand receives much attention in the empiri-cal literature (see Taylor (1975) and EPRI (1982b) for excellent surveys on the topic), hourly load demand analysis has only recently begun. Notable contributions are a series of studies sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI (1977. 1979a, 1979b, 1981a, 19816. 1982a) and Platt (1983)). These studies estimate load curve models for regions of the United States. Unfortunately, from a utility perspective, the empirical results presented in these studies are not directly applicable. Further, because the data used in these studies are not generally available at the geographic level of a utility service area, applying their methodology is problematic. This paper presents a practical method for an electric utility to produce an hourly load curve model similar in overall framework to these studies. Our procedure is innovative in that it produces statistically efficient estimates, which the above papers do not. We also demonstrate a method that uses supplementary forecasts to enhance the forecasting performance of the hourly load model.



Service Reliability and the Optimal Interruptible Rate Option in Residential Electricity Pricing

Chi-Keung Woo and Nate Toyama

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No3-10
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Abstract:
Recent research on electricity pricing extends the traditional peak load pricing problem in many directions. Some notable studies include the time-of-use (TOU) papers by Crew and Kleindorfer (1976, 1978); the cycling analysis by Dansby (1977); the Demand Subscription Service (DSS) studies by Tschirhart and Jen (1979), Panzar and Sibley (1978), and Marchand (1974). Central to these papers is the role played by demand uncertainty in determining the optimal electricity rate structure and capacity planning. With the exception of Tschirhart and Jen and Marchand, these papers do not directly address the question of service reliability from the customer's perspective. Moreover, the supply-side uncertainty caused by random plant outages (as indicated by Chao, 1983) is largely ignored. Finally, these studies, though elegant and innovative, do not analyze the problem of residential rate options, which recently have gained considerable popularity in the United States, especially in California.



Pareto Dominance Through Self-Selecting Tariffs: The Case of TOU Electricity Rates for Agricultural Customers

Kenneth E. Train and Nate Toyama

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No1-8
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Abstract:
We estimate the impact of a voluntary time-of-use (TOU) rate option for electricity used in agricultural pumping. We find that offering the TOU tariff in addition to standard, non-TOU rates increases the profits of the electric utility and Pareto dominates the offering of standard rates alone. The analysis provides an example of the fact that Pareto improvements can be obtained by judiciously expanding the set of self-selecting tariffs offered by a public utility.





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