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The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA1 Countries

M. Hakan Berument, Nildag Basak Ceylan and Nukhet Dogan

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No1-7
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Abstract:
This paper examines how oil price shocks affect the output growth of selected MENA countries that are considered either net exporters or net importers of this commodity, but are too small to affect oil prices. That an individual country's economic performance does not affect world oil prices is imposed on the Vector Autoregressive setting as an identifying restriction. The estimates suggest that oil price increases have a statistically significant and positive effect on the outputs of Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. However, oil price shocks do not appear to have a statistically significant effect on the outputs of Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. When we further decompose positive oil shocks such as oil demand and oil supply for the latter set of countries, oil supply shocks are associated with lower output growth but the effect of oil demand shocks on output remain positive.



Turkish Straits and an Important Oil Price Benchmark: Urals

Duygu Ekin Ayasli, Yeliz Yalcin, Serkan Sahin, and M. Hakan Berument

Year: 2023
Volume: Volume 44
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.4.daya
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Abstract:
The Turkish Straits is one of the busiest waterways in the World. Around 4% of the world's crude oil trade passes through the Turkish Straits. We model the CIF Mediterranean price of Urals crude, one of the world's most critical medium gravity crude brands that passes through the Turkish Straits. The empirical evidence provided here suggests that congestion (measured in terms of the waiting time for entering the Turkish Straits) increases the CIF Mediterranean price of Urals crude up to 5.05% and 3.09% for the İstanbul and Çanakkale straits, respectively. However, similar supporting evidence could be found for neither an important benchmark oil (Brent) nor Iranian Light, which has similar characteristics and can be considered a close substitute for Urals crude in the Mediterranean refinery market. This shows that the Turkish Straits have an important impact on the price of this important medium crude oil in world oil markets.





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