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Estimating Short and Long-Run Demand Elasticities: A Primer with Energy-Sector Applications

John T. Cuddington and Leila Dagher

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.1.7
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Abstract:
Many empirical exercises estimating demand functions, whether in energy economics or other fields, are concerned with estimating dynamic effects of price and income changes over time. This paper first reviews a number of commonly used dynamic demand specifications to highlight the implausible a priori restrictions that they place on short and long-run elasticities. Such problems are easily avoided by adopting a general-to-specific modeling methodology. Second, it discusses functional forms and estimation issues for getting point estimates and associated standard errors for both short and long-run elasticities - key information that is missing from many published studies. Third, our proposed approach is illustrated using a dataset on Minnesota residential electricity demand.



Strategic Commodities' Price Risk and Financial Contagion in Oil and Gas Exporting Countries

Ilyes Abid, Khaled Guesmi, Christian Urom, Saad Alshammari, and Leila Dagher

Year: 2024
Volume: Volume 45
Number: Special Issue
DOI:
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Abstract:
This study investigates the occurrence of stock market contagion effects stemming from strategic commodities and the United States (U.S.) equity markets to major oil and gas exporting nations amid the COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine crises. Employing a multi-factor asset pricing model and risks spillover technique, we scrutinize the sensitivities of market returns to these risk factors and the dynamics of shocks transmission among market sensitivities over time. Our findings reveal that these equity markets generally demonstrate positive and variable sensitivities to the three factors, with Canada, UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia experiencing significant periods of negative response to the gas price factor. Notably, the Russian market exhibited the highest responsiveness to the U.S. factor at the outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine war, whereas the Russian market displays the greatest sensitivity to both oil and gas price risks. The degree of shocks propagation among market sensitivities is about 75.8% and is mainly driver by sensitivities to the U.S. market factor in the energy market, followed by the sensitivity of oil prices to the gas market. Policymakers in these nations should be cautious of potential contagion from the US market and these critical commodities, particularly oil, to mitigate any adverse impacts on their economies.





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