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Oil Demand in the Industrialized Countries

Joyce Dargay and Dermot Gately

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-4
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Abstract:
This paper surveys OECD energy and oil demand over the past three decades, analyzing the different paths of transportation oil, non-transportation oil, and non-oil energy-both over time, and relative to income growth. We review both the OECD as a whole, and make regional comparisons within the OECD. We focus especially on the price-irreversibility of oil demand: why oil demand has not surged now that oil prices have returned to pre-1974 levels.Among our conclusions are the following. Mere has been an asymmetric, smaller demand response to the price decreases of the 1980s than to the price increases of the 1970s. We expect a smaller demand response to future price increases than to those of the 1970s. The demand response to future income growth will be not substantially smaller than in the past. Finally, given the prospect of growing dependence on OPEC oil, in the event of a major disruption the lessened responsiveness of demand to price increases could cause dramatic price increases and serious macroeconomic effects.



Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030

Joyce Dargay, Dermot Gately and Martin Sommer

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No4-7
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Abstract:
The speed of vehicle ownership expansion in emerging market and developing countries has important implications for transport and environmental policies, as well as the global oil market. The literature remains divided on the issue of whether the vehicle ownership rates will ever catch up to the levels common in the advanced economies. This paper contributes to the debate by building a model that explicitly models the vehicle saturation level as a function of observable country characteristics: urbanization and population density. Our model is estimated on the basis of pooled time-series (1960-2002) and cross-section data for 45 countries that include 75 percent of the world�s population. We project that the total vehicle stock will increase from about 800 million in 2002 to more than two billion units in 2030. By this time, 56% of the world�s vehicles will be owned by non-OECD countries, compared with 24% in 2002. In particular, China�s vehicle stock will increase nearly twenty-fold, to 390 million in 2030. This fast speed of vehicle ownership expansion implies rapid growth in oil demand.





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