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Real Oil Prices from 1980 to 1982

Hillard G. Huntington

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No3-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
In the early 1980s, soft world oil markets were accompanied by two important and unforeseen world economic developments: stagnant economic growth and an appreciating dollar. The virtual standstill in economic growth from 1980 to 1982 was well off the 3 percent-plus growth path many analysts had anticipated. This experience, coupled with large shifts in oil inventory holdings by consumers (and perhaps increased consumer responses to oil prices), has led to a steady accumulation of unused productive capacity in the world oil market.



Field Price Deregulation and the Carrier Status of Natural Gas Pipelines

Harry G. Broadman, W. David Montgomery, and Milton Russell

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No2-10
View Abstract

Abstract:
The move to deregulate natural gas field markets is likely to stimulate changes in the way the downstream segments of the industry are regulated. In particular, because the uncertainty endemic to freer upstream markets will emerge for the first time in the contemporary gas industry, the relative merits of having pipelines perform different economic functions will be altered. Producers and distributors will also, in varying degrees, face greater price uncertainty than before. This will lead to changes in the desired allocation of risk and incentives associated with activities traditionally carried out by transmission companies.



Oil Shock

Hillard G. Huntington

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No2-11
View Abstract

Abstract:
The move to deregulate natural gas field markets is likely to stimulate changes in the way the downstream segments of the industry are regulated. In particular, because the uncertainty endemic to freer upstream markets will emerge for the first time in the contemporary gas industry, the relative merits of having pipelines perform different economic functions will be altered. Producers and distributors will also, in varying degrees, face greater price uncertainty than before. This will lead to changes in the desired allocation of risk and incentives associated with activities traditionally carried out by transmission companies.



Oil Prices, Energy Security, and Impact Policy

R. Glenn Hubbard

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No2-12
View Abstract

Abstract:
The move to deregulate natural gas field markets is likely to stimulate changes in the way the downstream segments of the industry are regulated. In particular, because the uncertainty endemic to freer upstream markets will emerge for the first time in the contemporary gas industry, the relative merits of having pipelines perform different economic functions will be altered. Producers and distributors will also, in varying degrees, face greater price uncertainty than before. This will lead to changes in the desired allocation of risk and incentives associated with activities traditionally carried out by transmission companies.



The Making of Federal Coal Policy

Richard L. Gordon

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No2-13
View Abstract

Abstract:
The move to deregulate natural gas field markets is likely to stimulate changes in the way the downstream segments of the industry are regulated. In particular, because the uncertainty endemic to freer upstream markets will emerge for the first time in the contemporary gas industry, the relative merits of having pipelines perform different economic functions will be altered. Producers and distributors will also, in varying degrees, face greater price uncertainty than before. This will lead to changes in the desired allocation of risk and incentives associated with activities traditionally carried out by transmission companies.



Electric Power Strategic Issues

Richard L. Gordon

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No2-14
View Abstract

Abstract:
The move to deregulate natural gas field markets is likely to stimulate changes in the way the downstream segments of the industry are regulated. In particular, because the uncertainty endemic to freer upstream markets will emerge for the first time in the contemporary gas industry, the relative merits of having pipelines perform different economic functions will be altered. Producers and distributors will also, in varying degrees, face greater price uncertainty than before. This will lead to changes in the desired allocation of risk and incentives associated with activities traditionally carried out by transmission companies.



Risk Analysis and Decision Processes

Nelson E. May

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No2-15
View Abstract

Abstract:
The move to deregulate natural gas field markets is likely to stimulate changes in the way the downstream segments of the industry are regulated. In particular, because the uncertainty endemic to freer upstream markets will emerge for the first time in the contemporary gas industry, the relative merits of having pipelines perform different economic functions will be altered. Producers and distributors will also, in varying degrees, face greater price uncertainty than before. This will lead to changes in the desired allocation of risk and incentives associated with activities traditionally carried out by transmission companies.



The Natural Gas Industry

Harry G. Broadman

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No2-16
View Abstract

Abstract:
The move to deregulate natural gas field markets is likely to stimulate changes in the way the downstream segments of the industry are regulated. In particular, because the uncertainty endemic to freer upstream markets will emerge for the first time in the contemporary gas industry, the relative merits of having pipelines perform different economic functions will be altered. Producers and distributors will also, in varying degrees, face greater price uncertainty than before. This will lead to changes in the desired allocation of risk and incentives associated with activities traditionally carried out by transmission companies.



Should GNP Impacts Preclude Oil Tariffs?

Hillard G. Huntington

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No2-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
The oil security issue has been pushed once again to the forefront of energy policy deliberations. While a number of different policy options are being considered and discussed, none has generated as much heated debate as the imposition of an oil import tariff in the United States (see Broadman and Hogan, 1986; U.S. Department of Energy, 1987.)



On Economic Policy Responses to Disruptions: A Reply to Harry Saunders

Bert G. Hickman, Hillard G. Huntington and James L. Sweeney

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-14
View Abstract

Abstract:
At its heart, Harry Saunders' Comment raises two principal criticisms I of the EMF study, "Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks";The EMF study held constant the disrupted-state world oil price; effects of policy actions on the world oil price were not included. Saunders faults the EMF for not explicitly examining these effects. But further, he implies that, in estimating effects of policy actions to counter the oil shock, modelers should have held constant the disrupted-state quantity of oil consumed in the US.



North American Natural Gas Markets: Summary of an Energy Modeling Forum Study

Hillard G. Huntington and Glen E. Schuler, Jr.

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper summarizes the research by the Ninth Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group which focused on the evolution of the North American natural gas market through 2010.1 The group analyzed four standardized scenarios: upper and lower oil price paths, the low U.S. natural gas resource base, and high U.S. natural gas demand. The group sought to develop insights about the gas market's development under these scenarios by using economic models and additional analyses. Some of the most critical factors highlighted in the study, that will affect the usage and price of gas in the future, are the nature of the gas-oil substitution in the industrial and utility boiler market, which will depend on relative bumertip residual fuel oil to gas prices, the incremental costs of finding and producing additional gas supplies in the U.S. and Canada, and the amount of potential gas imports.



LDC Cooperation in World Oil Conservation

Stephen P.A. Brown and Hillard G. Huntington

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-17
View Abstract

Abstract:
Environmental concerns are leading many industrialized countries to consider measures which would reduce their consumption of oil, as well as other energy sources. The reluctance of the developing countries to join in these conservation efforts will reduce the policy's effectiveness. This paper explores the conditions under which the exclusion of important oil consumers (like developing countries) would weaken unilateral OECD actions to conserve oil.Oil conservation undertaken unilaterally by the OECD can lead to lower world oil prices, and offsetting increases in oil consumption elsewhere. We provide estimates of these offsetting effects and how they influence the costs of participating in the policy. We also examine the effect of adding and excluding countries to a coordinated policy of oil conservation.



Oil Price Forecasting in the 1980s: What Went Wrong?

Hillard G. Huntington

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No2-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper reviews forecasts of oil prices over the 1980s that were made in 1980. It identifies the sources of errors due to such factors as exogenous GNP assumptions, resource supply conditions outside the cartel, and demand adjustments to price changes. Through 1986, the first two factors account for most of the difference between projected and actual prices. After 1986, misspecification of the demand adjustments becomes a particularly troublesome problem.



Crude Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Performance: Where Does the Asymmetry Reside?

Hillard G. Huntington

Year: 1998
Volume: Volume19
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Sustained decreases in crude oil prices appear to affect the U.S. economy differently than sustained increases. This paper shows that a significant part of the observed asymmetry is due to adjustments within the energy sector and not within the rest of the economy. In particular, sustained decreases in petroleum product or general energy prices do not appear to have qualitatively different macroeconomic impacts than do sustained price increases. The singular focus on crude oil price changes in previous studies is misplaced. Moreover, the 1986 oil price collapse did not operate in isolation from other important events. As crude oil prices fell in the 1986 period, other factors caused a major devaluation of the U.S. dollar that had potentially important effects on the U.S. economy.



After the Natural Gas Bubble: An Economic Evaluation of the Recent U.S. National Petroleum Council Study

Ken Costello, Hillard G. Huntington, and James F. Wilson

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No2-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
This perspective paper reviews and critiques the policy analysis and modeling of future natural gas markets in the National Petroleum Council�s 2003 natural gas study (NPC Study). The NPC Study provided an important and timely review of long-term natural gas supply, demand and potential policies to increase supply or suppress demand. However, its long-term scenarios used assumptions and simplifications that led to understating likely longer-term market reactions to higher natural gas prices, which results in exaggeration of the potential benefits of the policies recommended by the NPC. In addition, the narrow scope of the NPC Study did not address many important considerations in natural gas policy, such as the costs of recommended policies, or their impacts on taxpayers, resource owners, or the environment. Overall, the study does not provide the evidence needed to justify major natural gas policies, especially in view of the current uncertain market environment.



A Note on Price Asymmetry as Induced Technical Change

Hillard G. Huntington

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No3-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
This note evaluates whether fixed time effects (yearly dummy variables) are a better representation than separate price-decomposition terms for induced technical change in energy and oil demand. Fixed time effects are a proxy for all omitted variables that change similarly over time for all countries. Many of these omitted variables have little relevance to technical change. Empirically, statistical tests applied to previous studies reject an important premise of the fixed-time-effect model that energy or oil demand responds symmetrically to price increases and decreases. Moreover, when price-decomposition techniques allow for price-asymmetric responses, the estimated income elasticities are not dramaticalxly different from their fixed-time-effect counterparts, as it is sometimes alleged. There are also practical reasons for choosing models that allow for asymmetric responses to price, especially when evaluating the longrun implications of a number of important energy and environmental issues.




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