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I. Conceptual Framework - The Gordian Knot of Natural Gas Prices

Henry D. Jacoby and Arthur W. Wright

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No4-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
Federal policy toward natural gas prices is once again the subject of national debate. Thought to be settled once and for all by the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 (NGPA), it reemerged as an issue in 1981. The proximate causes of the renewed controversy included candidate Ronald Reagan's campaign promise to seek wellhead price decontrol, and the Reagan administration's attempts (until March 1982) to find a workable decontrol proposal. But the wellsprings of the problem go deeper than this, to the history of gas price regulation, to changes in energy markets since 1978, and to serious defects in the NGPA itself.



World Oil Prices and Economic Growth In the 1980s

Henry D. Jacoby and James L. Paddock

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No2-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
The world oil market is a forecaster's nightmare: seldom have so many knowledgeable observers been so wrong so often. Prior to 1973, few foresaw the magnitude of the price jump that was possible under disrupted conditions, or predicted the years of relative stability that followed. The Iranian revolution brought a similar surprise. On the other hand, in the fall of 1980 came the Iran-Iraq war; again a major price shock seemed at hand. Experts are still arguing about why it did not occur.



Effects of Taxes and Price Regulation on Offshore Gas

Henry D. Jacoby and James L. Smith

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-NoSI-21
No Abstract



Project Evaluation: A Pracitcal Asset Pricing Method

Henry D. Jacoby and David G. Laughton

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No2-2
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Abstract:
This paper presents a practical approach to project evaluation using techniques of modern financial economics, with a sample application to oil development under a complex tax system. The method overcomes shortcomings of conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) methods which are either imprecise about the relation between economic value and uncertainty, or are rigid and unrealistic in the required assumptions about how a project's risks (and therefore its value) are influenced by market conditions, the project physical structure, and tax and contract provisions. It is based on the formulation and estimation of an "information model" which represents the resolution over time of uncertainties underlying a project (oil prices in the examples shown). The project can then be valued using derivative asset valuation, which replicates the consequences of a complex asset by a traded portfolio of simpler assets (in our case, riskless bonds and future claims on oil).



CO2 Emissions Limits: Economic Adjustments and the Distribution of Burdens

Henry D. Jacoby, Richard S. Eckaus, A. Denny Ellerman, Ronald G. Prinn, David M. Reiner and Zili Yang

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume18
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No3-2
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Abstract:
Policies under consideration within the Climate Convention would impose CO2 controls on only a subset of nations. A model of economic growth and emissions, coupled to an analysis of the climate system, is used to explore the consequences of a sample proposal of this type. The results show how economic burdens are likely to be distributed among nations, how carbon "leakage" may counteract the reductions attained, and how policy costs may be influenced by emissions trading. We explore the sensitivity of results to uncertainty in key underlying assumptions, including the influence on economic impacts and on the policy contribution to long-term climate goals.



Adjustment Time, Capital Malleability and Policy Cost

Henry D. Jacoby and Ian Sue Wing

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
The cost of meeting Kyoto-style emissions reductions is heavily dependent on the malleability of an economy's stock of capital and the number of years available for adjustment. Each year of delay introduces more emissionproducing activities that must be squeezed out of the system and shortens the time horizon for change, raising the carbon price required to produce the needed changes in capital structure. The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Assessment model is used to explore the effects of uncertainty in the degree of capital malleability in the short run, and to analyze how implied carbon prices vary depending on the time of credible commitment to emissions targets.



Experiments with a Hybrid CGE-MARKAL Model

Andreas Schafer and Henry D. Jacoby

Year: 2006
Volume: Hybrid Modeling
Number: Special Issue #2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI2-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper summarizes the main features of a linked CGE-MARKAL model system capable of simulating the macro-level economy and micro-level technology detail of the transport sector. Emphasis is given to issues of calibration of such a hybrid system, with references provided to already published papers based on this research for coverage of other details.





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