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Optimal Oil Producer Behavior Considering Macrofeedbacks

Harry D. Saunders

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No4-1
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Abstract:
Oil producer decisions on oil pricing and production can affect consumer countries' economies in ways directly affecting producers' interests. The short- and long-term evolution of oil demand in consumer economies is, of course, strongly affected by producer actions. But so also may be returns on assets that producers hold in these economies.



A Note on Rowen and Weyant,"Reducing the Economic Impacts of Oil Supply Interruptions: An International Perspective"

Harry D. Saunders

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No4-5
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Abstract:
Henry Rowen and John Weyant (1982) commit the classic error of trying to answer an important policy question with tools that do not fit the job. Nor does their care in attaching explicit caveats to their conclusions overcome the fact that the limitations of their approach are serious.The question of oil supply disruptions and their potential economic impact is indeed important, and it remains so despite slack oil markets. Policymakers may yet be faced with situations that require them to decide quickly on the advisability of emergency tariffs and other such measures; and they will need reasonable assurances that the caveats analysts attach to policy recommendations do not overwhelm the recommendations themselves. Just such a danger is inherent in the inappropriate application of models and the application of inappropriate models.



Comment on "Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks," the Energy Modeling Forum Comparison of Models

Harry D. Saunders

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-13
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Abstract:
In its recently completed study of energy shocks, the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) took 14 macroeconomic models and, by carefully comparing them, evaluated a number of policies for counteracting the negative impacts of an oil shock. The study provides an exceptional look at this important question, and the summary report by Hickman, Huntington, and Sweeney (1987) is full of valuable insights. Energy economists with an interest in this field should view the summary report, along with all its supporting reports and individual modeler summaries (available from EMF), as a required reference.



Recent Evidence for Large Rebound: Elucidating the Drivers and their Implications for Climate Change Models

Harry D. Saunders

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.1.2
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Abstract:
New research using data spanning centuries reveals the presence of very large energy efficiency rebound magnitudes, calling into question the energy use forecasts relied on by international bodies investigating climate change mitigation policy. This article uses those recent results to highlight and explain the key drivers that future energy modelers need to incorporate.





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