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Oil Price Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations

Carlos de Miguel, Baltasar Manzano and Jose M. Martin-Moreno

Year: 2003
Volume: Volume24
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No2-2
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Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on the characteristics of the business cycle and on welfare in a small open economy, such as in the case of the Spanish economy. The results show the ability of the model to reproduce the business cycle path of the Spanish economy, especially in those periods when shocks in the price of oil were most dramatic. Furthermore, the model reproduces other regularities of the Spanish business cycle. Finally, it is shown that the increases in the relative price oil had a negative and significant effect on welfare.



Disentangling The Effects of oil Shocks: The Role of Rigidities and Monetary Policy

Carlos de Miguel , Baltasar Manzano, Jose M. Martin-Moreno and Jesus Ruiz

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Special Issue #2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-NoSI2-9
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Abstract:
Using a new Keynesian, stochastic, dynamic model of a small open monetary economy that imports oil and applying it to the Spanish economy, this paper addresses the question of why the effects of oil shocks from the mid-1980�s on output and inflation were smaller. We depart from the previous literature on this topic by simulating a theoretical model whose parameters are estimated using Kalman Filter techniques. The paper is particularly appealing to study the effects of high energy prices, which would be associated to climate change policies, and to the feedback effects of those policies on the economy. The results of the paper support the hypothesis of smaller macroeconomic effects of oil shocks from the mid-1980�s. The results emerge from the different features of the economy: both labor market rigidities and the oil share have decreased over time and the monetary policy has changed in that it is more focused on controlling inflation.



Oil Subsidies and Renewable Energy in Saudi Arabia: A General Equilibrium Approach

Jorge Blazquez, Lester C Hunt, and Baltasar Manzano

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: KAPSARC Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.SI1.jbla
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Abstract:
In 2016, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced its Vision 2030 strategic plan incorporating major changes to the economic structure of the country, including an intention to deploy 9.5 GW of renewable energy in an effort to reduce the penetration of oil in the electricity generation system. This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact of such changes in the KSA, coupled with reductions in implicit energy subsidies. Based on a dynamic general equilibrium model, our analysis suggests that if the KSA government were to deploy a relatively small quantity of renewable technology, consistent with the country's Vision 2030 plans, there would be a positive impact on the KSA's long run GDP and on households' welfare. However, we demonstrate that if the integration costs of renewable technology were high, then households' welfare would be maximized at around 30-40% renewables penetration. In addition, we show that a policy favoring renewable energy would increase the dependence of the KSA on oil, given that a larger share of GDP would be linked to oil exports and so, potentially, to oil price shocks. Finally, it is shown that exporting significantly more oil onto the international market could have a negative impact on the international oil price and thus could offset the potential gains from the renewable energy policy.





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