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Energy Journal Issue

The Energy Journal
Volume 2, Number 3

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Balancing Energy Supply and Demand: A Fifty-Year Global Perspective

Paul S. Basile

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-1View Abstract

Over the next five decades, even with vigorous conservation measures in industrialized regions, increasing needs for liquid fuels throughout the world may exceed the capabilities of global energy supply systems. The "energy problem," viewed in a sufficiently long-term and global perspective, is not an energy problem, strictly speaking, but an oil problem, or more precisely, a liquid fuels problem.

A Critique of the IIASA Energy Models

Dennis Meadows

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-2View Abstract

Of the several hundred seminars and meetings that have been held by the IIASA Energy Systems Program since its inception in 1973, one still stands out in the minds of many people at the Institute. In the winter of 1977, Amory Lovins visited Laxenburg; he was invited to deliver a seminar on soft energy paths and to discuss interim results of the IIASA energy project with Dr. Wolf Hafele, founder and director of the Program and its dominant intellectual and administrative figure since its initiation.

Comment on "Balancing Energy Supply and Demand"

John Foster

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-3View Abstract

While a number of energy studies assume a national or regional perspective, just a few attempt a global approach, and these are typically concerned with the implications for industrialized nations. More-over, very few published studies look at the long-term global scene as far ahead as even the year 2000 (e.g., WAES and Exxon's World Energy Outlook), and only one to my knowledge extends its perspective to 2020 (Conservation Commission of the World Energy Conferences, 1977). So the long-awaited IIASA report, (as summarized here by Paul Basile), represents a landmark.

Air Quality Implications of a Nuclear Moratorium: An Alternative Analysis

Anthony Bopp, Verne Loose

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-4View Abstract

The role of nuclear power in the nation's energy future is and probably will continue to be one of the principal energy policy issues in the United States. Relatively inexpensive coal reserves and escalating costs of light water reactors have eroded a once-large cost advantage enjoyed by nuclear technologies. While the relative cost advantage of nuclear over coal electric power has become a subject of debate, other less concrete issues have surfaced and often overshadow economic arguments. Antinuclear "forces" generally view the technology as the essence of what they consider wrong with modern technological society. Pronuclear "forces" counter that much fear associated with nuclear power derives from the newness of the technology and that the air quality and possible economic gains associated with nuclear power make it the preferable choice for future electricity generation.

An Analysis of Department of Energy Residential Appliance Efficiency Standards

Raymond S. Hartman & MIT Energy Laboratory

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-5View Abstract

Over the past several years, the Department of Energy (DOE) and its predecessor agencies have initiated an array of policies aimed at limiting domestic consumption of fossil fuels. Several policy initiatives, aimed at residential fossil-based energy conservation, have included residential appliance efficiency standards, the commercialization of residential applications of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations and solar thermal appliances, and the implementation of energy performance standards for buildings. Each of these programs alone will reduce residential fossil fuel consumption. However, it remains unclear how they interact. In this article I examine how two programs may interact. In particular, I assess how well appliance efficiency standards will reduce fuel consumption and whether a standards program will conflict with or complement the DOE's PV commercialization efforts.

Information and Bidding Behavior by Major Oil Companies for Outer Continental Shelf Leases: Is the joint Bidding Ban Justified?

Steven W. Millsaps, Mack Ott

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-6View Abstract

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (PL 94-163), signed into law in December 1975, forbade oil companies that produced the equivalent of 1.6 million barrels of oil per day (mbd) worldwide from bidding jointly for outer continental shelf (OCS) leases. The U.S. Department of the Interior adopted regulations to that effect. The Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act Amendment of 1978 (PL 95-372) modified the 1975 law. This amendment gives the Secretary of the Interior the power to conduct periodic reviews of production rates by petroleumproducers and to ban from joint bidding any person or firm that produced, during a prior six-month period specified by the secretary, an average of 1.6 mbd.

Industrial and Commercial Demand for Electricity by Time-of-Day: A California Case Study

Chinbang Chung, Dennis J. Aigner

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-7View Abstract

Recently there has been much interest in time-of-use (TOU) pricing structures for electric utilities. TOU pricing reflects more closely than conventional pricing the cost components of supplying electricity, which vary over the course of a single day as well as over days of the week and seasons of the year. Although such pricing structures have long been used in Europe, they did not receive much attention in the United States prior to 1974.

Stability of Appalachian Coal Shipments under Policy Variation

Chin Wei Yang

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-8View Abstract

This article investigates the critical issue of how Appalachian coal supply flows vary in response to changes in national coal markets and policies, with emphasis on the relative stability of traditional flows. The approach taken to analyze this stability involves the use of a quadratic programming (QP) transportation model (see Takayama and Judge, 1971), along with a nonparametric statistical procedure (see Gibbons 1976, and Cooper, 1971). This approach is deemed appropriate for several reasons. First, the QP formulation permits the mechanism of price adjustment to become endogenous. Second, the mathematical property of the base-shifting flows under random shocks is almost intractable, confirming the validity of combining the statistical and mathematical programming approaches. Third, coal characteristics that differ among regions, such as sulfur and ash content and degree of washability, permit a comparison of the "relative" positions (rankingof dominance) of 13 major coal trade flows in the Appalachian area.

The Impact of President Reagan's Sudden Decontrol of Petroleum Prices on Petroleum Consumption

Ali M. Reza

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-9View Abstract

President Reagan lifted all petroleum price controls shortly after he took office. Previously, the Carter administration had scheduled these controls to be eliminated gradually, with complete decontrol occurring by October 1, 1981. It is of interest to determine the effect of the sudden decontrol on petroleum consumption; in order to measure this effect, the role played by price must be isolated.

The Dilemma of Economic Versus Statistical Models of Energy

J. Daniel Khazzoom

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-10View Abstract

The recent surge of interest among energy planners in economic models' for predicting the energy outlook has coincided with a growing senseof disillusionment among many practicing econometricians about the forecasting performance of economic models (see, for example, Stekler, 1968).Many economists argue that the problem with economic models lies in the economic theories behind them. These theories analyze the impact of policy changes on the assumption that the structure will not change, when in fact what may happen is that the structure itself, and not just the variables ofinterest, may change as policy changes. What is needed is a theory that predicts how the structure will change in response to such policy changes.

The U.N. Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy: Response to the Challenge of the Global Energy Transition

Morris Miller

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-11View Abstract

The world community is being forced to navigate a transition, over the next few decades, to a future that must entail a radical shift away from dependence on hydrocarbons. The pressure for change arising from the 1973 "oil price shock" is mounting with each year, despite the periodic respites characterized as "oil gluts."