Association Webinars: Dutch Disease in Norway?



Norway has been held up as a success in terms of avoiding Dutch disease following the discovery of hydrocarbons in 1969. Manufacturing employment has developed in line with other industrial countries, and productivity has not suffered. A tax system has been designed to enable the government to absorb the entire resource rent, deposit all of it in the Government Pension Fund Global, and limit spending to the fund’s expected real return. However, a strong home bias caused the demands created by the post-2000 investment boom to be directed towards the domestic, non-oil economy. As a result, prices and wages were bid up significantly above those of surrounding countries. The implied reduction of oil company profits cut tax revenues, so that arguably about half of the resource rent was diverted to the private sector and added to the spending boom. The talk will document these findings and discuss the future prospects for the Norwegian economy in view of the recent global cost increases and the eventual end to the petro saga.

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Knut Anton Mork holds a PhD from MIT and has been an authority on the relationship between energy and the macroeconomy since his early analyses of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and beyond. He has taught at the University of Arizona, Vanderbilt University, BI Norwegian Business School, and the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, with a current status as professor emeritus at the latter two institutions. He also served as Chief Economist Norway for Handelsbanken from 1996 to 2015. His current research centers around the investment strategy of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global and the sustainability of its use as a funding source for government spending.

Hilde C. Bjørnland is Provost for Research and Academic Resources and Professor of Economics at the BI Norwegian Business School. She holds a Master of Science in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics from London School of Economics, and a PhD (Dr.Polit) in Economics from the University of Oslo. She is also Director and Founder of the research center CAMP (Centre for Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices) at the BI Norwegian Business School. Her main area of research is within applied macroeconomics and time series, with special interests in the study of natural resources, business cycles, and monetary and fiscal policy.

Klaus Mohn is the Rector and a professor in petroleum economics at the University of Stavanger. He holds an MSc in Economics from the Norwegian School of Economics and a PhD in petroleum economics from the University of Stavanger. Until 2013, he served as the chief economist of Statoil (now Equinor). Mohn’s research interests span the cross-section of economics, energy, and natural resource management, with a particular interest for the tension between energy, petroleum, and climate change, including business cycles and economic policy formation in resource-rich countries.

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Event Date: September 28, 2022

Event Time: 10:00 - 11:00 AM Eastern Time

Topic: Dutch Disease in Norway?

Speakers: Knut A. Mork, Hilde C. Bjørnland, and Klaus Mohn

Price: FREE

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