Association Webinars: Insights from Long-Term Energy Scenarios


Slides: View Christian Breyer's slides
View Franziska Holz's slides

Energy scenarios are developed by universities, international organizations, think tanks, energy companies, as well as consultancies. Despite their differences, most scenarios are not optimistic about the world meeting the Paris Agreement targets. This webinar will provide new insights into long-term scenario planning and will ask such questions as: Are we now more (or less) likely to achieve ambitious climate targets than we were before Covid19?

Importantly, the speakers will discuss whether a 100% renewable energy system is technologically and economically feasible and who has expected a Black Swan event, such as the coronavirus crisis.


Anna (Ebers) Broughel is a renewable energy economist at an engineering consulting firm Tetra Tech. Her most recent research reviewed over 60 international energy scenarios for 2040 and beyond, developing four meta scenarios for post-COVID19 energy futures. Prior to joining Tetra Tech, she worked at the U.S. Department of Energy as a Science and Technology Fellow and completed her post-doctoral training at the University of St.Gallen in Switzerland and at the University of Maryland, College Park. She holds a PhD in economics and policy from the State University of New York in association with Syracuse University, where she was a Fulbright scholar. Currently, she serves as a council member for the U.S. Association for Energy Economics and is a non-resident fellow at the University of Texas at Austin.


Christian Breyer is Professor for Solar Economy at LUT University, Finland. His major expertise is the integrated research of technological and economic characteristics of renewable energy systems specializing in energy system modeling for 100% renewable energy, on a local but also global scale. His team published the most studies on 100% renewable energy for countries or major regions globally. Energy system transition studies are carried out in full hourly and high geo-spatial resolution. Publications cover integrated sector analyses with power, heat, transport, desalination, industry and negative CO2 emission options. Carbon capture and utilization as part of comprehensive Power-to-X investigations is a core research field for his team. He published more than 300 scientific papers, thereof more than 100 in scientific journals. He worked previously for Reiner Lemoine Institut, Berlin, and Q-Cells (now: Hanwha Q Cells). He is member of ETIP PV, IEA-PVPS, scientific committee of the EU PVSEC and IRES, scientific advisory board of CO2 Value Europe, academic council of Global Alliance Powerfuels, chairman for renewable energy at the Energy Watch Group, reviewer for the IPCC and a co-founder of the Desertec Foundation. His academic background is general business, physics and energy systems engineering and a PhD in electrical engineering. He communicates in Twitter @ChristianOnRE.

Franziska Holz is Deputy Head of Department at DIW Berlin and Adjunct Professor at the Norwegian University of Technology in Trondheim (NTNU) in the Energy Transition Programme. At DIW Berlin, she coordinates the research area resource and environmental markets in the department Energy, Transportation, and Environment. She studied economics at Paris 1 University Panthéon-Sorbonne (1998-2003) and obtained her PhD in economics in 2009 from TU Berlin. Her research deals with international natural gas, coal, and oil markets. She focuses on the interaction of these markets with climate policies and uses numerical equilibrium models. Much of her research is based on the development and application of open-source numerical models, such as the Global Gas Model and COALMOD-World. At DIW Berlin, she has coordinated various international and European research projects, among others one on global energy and climate scenarios. Built on a structured scenario planning process, her team derived four diverse scenarios to 2050 that represent the breadth of the scenario cone and were quantified with a global energy and resource market model.


© 2022 International Association for Energy Economics | Privacy Policy | Return Policy