Our Complex Worlds Scramble Oil Investments -- Oil vs Oil.
Speakers: John Ballantine and Mohammed AlMehdar
Our energy worlds have experienced more uncertainty since the1973 OPEC embargo, the Iraq Wars, or 2015 Paris Climate agreements. Oil & gas remains the dominant source of energy as demand shifts and suppliers make huge investments in our evolving energy system. How do today’s players make their investment decisions and prosper in the long run?
The oil industry has faced a whirlwind of exogenous surprises over past decade: financial crises, changing climate agendas, regional conflicts, and the pandemic. However today much of the turbulence is generated within the oil industry: divergent producers operating with different investment parameters. Shale oil in the Midwest with shorter paybacks and lower development costs, compared to the Middle East and OPEC producers, or the North-Sea operators with huge investments, low break evens, and decade long returns. Today's oil & gas sector is characterized by players with dissimilar capabilities operating in a less well-organized market where they are the source of cyclicality and price volatility.
In this webinar, we discuss how an agent-based model brings more realism to the production and investment behavior than macro scenario models.
Oil Investment in the Time of Corona
Speakers: Colin Ward
“Unprecedented” may be the word for energy markets in 2020 with the sharpest demand fall, the largest OPEC cut, the lowest oil price (negative!), and several other firsts. Now that some stability is slowly returning to the market, producers are looking to the future of energy and deciding on the best allocation of their capital budgets.
While profit maximization is at the heart of any investment decision, the portfolio of risks (real and perceived) and options available can lead to quite different investment choices. These risks are not purely economic and are difficult to quantify with traditional modelling techniques as the utility / expectation for each participant is quite unique. Understanding the context for the various oil producers can explain the divergence in investment / production commitments, and what we can expect in the years to come.
In this part of the webinar, we discuss the short-term oil market as provided by the KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO), long-term trends, and the impacts on the medium-term investment decisions of players in an uncertain energy landscape.
Key points to be covered:
John W. Ballantine, Jr. is a senior lecturer at Brandeis International Business School. For the past twenty years he has taught courses in global economics, investments, and energy/climate to undergraduates and graduate students. He has a PhD in economics from the NYU Stern School and a masters degree in public policy from the University of Chicago. He has worked as a consultant with Arthur D. Little, a banker with Chase Bank, and an analyst with Ashland Oil. Ballantine has been a research visitor with KAPSARC in Saudi Arabia. His current research involves the challenges of energy DSGE scenario models and agent based partial equilibrium models.
Mohammed AlMehdar is an economics PhD candidate at Brandeis University building agent-based energy models and writing his dissertation on complexity theory / computational economics. His research focuses on applying artificial intelligence techniques to modeling the behavior of economic agents. AlMehdar has also been a research visitor with KAPSARC.
Colin Ward was the interim director of the Markets and Industrial Development program and currently serves as a Visiting Researcher for KAPSARC. He has worked in the energy industry for 15 years in various capacities including seismic field work, refinery design and consulting for major international and national oil companies worldwide. Colin plays a major role in several projects including the KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) and environmental issues for the energy industry.
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA is the Nation's premier source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government.
BP is one of the world's leading international oil and gas companies. We operate or market our products in more than 80 countries, providing our customers with fuel for transportation, energy for heat and light, retail services and petrochemicals products for everyday items.
Established in 1819, ESCP Europe is the world's first business school and has educated generations of leaders and forward-thinkers. With its five urban campuses in Paris, London, Berlin, Madrid, and Torino, ESCP Europe has a true European identity which enables the provision of a unique style of business education and a global perspective on management issues.
Triple-crown accredited (EQUIS, AMBA, AACSB), ESCP Europe welcomes 4,000 students and 5,000 executives from 90 different nations every year, offering them a wide range of general management and specialised programmes. The School's alumni network has 40,000 members in 150 countries and from 200 nationalities.
At ESCP Europe London campus, the Research Centre for Energy Management (RCEM) is dedicated to rigorous and objective empirical research on issues related to energy management, finance, and policy, in order to support decision-making by both government and industry.
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan was established in June 1966 and certified as an incorporated foundation by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in September that year. The aim of its establishment is to carry on research activities specialized in the area of energy from the viewpoint of the national economy as a whole in a bid to contribute to sound development of the Japanese energy-supplying and energy-consuming industries and to the improvement of people's life in the country by objectively analyzing energy problems and providing basic data, information and reports necessary for the formulation of policies. With the diversification of social needs during the three and a half decades of its operation, IEEJ has expanded its scope of research activities to include such topics as environmental problems and international cooperation closely related to energy. In October 1984, the Energy Data and Modeling Center (EDMC) was established as an IEEJ-affiliated organization to carry out such tasks as the development of energy data bases, building of various energy models and econometric analyses of energy. In July 1999, EDMC was merged into IEEJ and began operating as an IEEJ division under the same name, i.e., the Energy Data and Modeling Center.
The University of Stavanger, Norway, has about 9200 students and 1300 staff. As member of the European Consortium of Innovative Universities (ECIU), the university aims at being a regional driving force through research activities, new forms of teaching and learning, and knowledge transfer.
The Stavanger region has been Norwayâ€™s hub for innovative industry for several decades and this is reflected in the universityÂ´s emphasis on technology and programmes of professional study.
Within the Faculty of Science and Technology, research related to the oil and gas industry has an international reputation.Â The Department of Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning has consistently been among Norwayâ€™s most prolific research groups. Their main research areas are risk analysis and management, industrial and petroleum economics, fisheries and aquaculture and societal safety.
The university's master programme in industrial economics is known for its excellence and admittance requires a high grade point average.
The Faculty of Public Affairs at Carleton University was established in 1997 to bring together an array of academic departments, schools and institutes that address the broad areas of politics, policy and governance, international affairs, media and society, and community engagement.
The Faculty fosters academic cooperation across 12 component units, including Departments (Political Science, Economics, and Law and Legal Studies), Schools (International Affairs, Journalism and Communication, Public Policy and Administration, and Social Work), Institutes (Criminology and Criminal Justice, European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Political Economy, and African Studies), as well as the Arthur Kroeger College of Public Affairs.
The Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES) provides new insights on the role of economics, policy and regulation in the performance and evolution of energy markets. Independently and through collaborations with other Baker Institute programs, Rice University faculty, and scholars from around the world, the CES consistently produces data-driven analysis to support a deeper understanding of local and international political and economic issues impacting energy markets. Programs at the CES center on economic modeling and forecasting, the nexus between energy and environment, and emerging technologies, regulations and geopolitical risk. Thus, the CES provides policymakers, corporate leaders, and the public with a non-partisan, high quality, data-driven, analytical voice on energy and environmental issues that often can be politically divisive.
Aramco Services Company (ASC) operates as a vital link between Saudi Aramco, the worldâ€™s leading energy company and North America. ASC is the U.S.-based subsidiary of Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and a fully integrated, global petroleum and chemicals enterprise. ASCâ€™s geographical area of responsibility extends throughout North America, with operations in the U.S. and Canada, and selected activities in South America.
ASC conducts a wide range of services to help Saudi Aramco facilitate the safe and reliable delivery of energy to customers around the globe. Established in 1950 in New York City, the company moved to Houston in 1974, joining other industry leaders to further strengthen the city's unique position as the energy capital of the world. In addition to its Houston headquarters, ASC maintains an office in Washington, D.C., to collect data on oil markets, governmental policies and economic trends.
UTE (National Administration of Power Plants and Electric Transmission) is a 100-year state-owned utility. Born in 1912, the company is vertically integrated, developing power plants, transmission and distribution networks and electricity marketing both inside Uruguay and with neighboring countries.
Located in the south cone of South America, Uruguay has a total area of 187,000 km2, aprox. 3.5 million inhabitants, with an annual per capita GDP of 14,400 USD and expecting 4% of economic increase for 2013.
The electric sector has an installed capacity of almost 2700 MW, historically based on a mix between hydro plants and thermal back-up (65-35%). Near 98% of households are interconnected. The peak load of the system is about 1800 MW, having an annual consumption of 10,000 GWh.
The National Energy Policy developed since 2007, for the electric sector include a goal to get installed new 1200 MW of wind power and at least 200 MW of biomass by 2015. UTE conducts procedures to contract that power in a long-term basis from near 20 different projects, which now are being developed by IPPâ€™s. The company also develops its own wind projects.
Our mission is to train the experts who will drive the transition to the new energy economy and meet current industrial and societal needs in the fields of energy, oil, gas, petrochemicals and powertrains.
Our strong industrial partnerships, our position within IFP Energies nouvelles, our multidisciplinary educational programs, international prestige and unique work environment have helped our students succeed since the School's founding in 1924.
Our offer includes 10 industry-oriented graduate programs. The fields covered by our industry-oriented programs include: Exploration-Production, Energy Sector Processes, Powertrains and Products, Economics-Management.
Admission: Applicants must have an engineering degree or equivalent, corresponding to four years (American BSc, for example) or five years (French engineering degree, for example) of higher education.
Applicants are selected on the basis of their application, followed by an interview.
National master's degree or an engineering degree is awarded at graduation.
Standard length: 16 months
Reservoir Geoscience and Engineering
Petroleum Engineering and Project Development
Energy and Processes
Processes and Polymers
Energy and Powertrains
Energy and Products
Energy and Markets
Petroleum Economics and Management
Some of our other programs
4 Research Master's programs: High-level academic training programs
IFP School has partnerships with French universities and engineering schools for four research Master's programs ("M2").
Admission: These programs are taught in French and are open to students with at least four years of higher education.
Master in geosciences
Master in Catalysis and Processes
Master in electrification and Automotive Propulsion
Master in Environmental Economics, Sustainable Development and Energy.
Theses: More than 40 new PhD topics every year.
UCL Australia is an integral part of University College London (UCL), one of the foremost academic institutions in the world and an academic powerhouse with 21 Nobel Prize winners among staff and alumni. UCL brings a unique internationally connected educational experience to Australia with a specialist focus on education in the global critical field of energy and resources.
UCL Australia offers a select group of highly focussed postgraduate programmes, that equip students with sought-after qualifications from one of the worldâ€™s top universities, awards that are uniquely designed to develop management, policy and technology skills for the global energy and resources sector.
The Alberta School of Business is built on the Alberta tradition; Innovative ideas, hard work, entrepreneurial spirit and great people. Â Recognized as one of the World's leading Business schools, the Alberta School of Business offers undergraduate, master, and PhD degrees to over 2300 students.
Building off the strength of the local economy, the Alberta School of Business delivers leading research in Natural Resources, Energy and Environmental issues. With exceptional faculty and links to the corporate community through the Centre for Applied Business Research in Energy and the Environment, the Alberta School of Business offers a world-class and high relevant MBA in Natural Resources, Energy and Environment. This is one of only a few such programs offered globally.
With exceptional faculty and a world-recognized MBA program, the Alberta School of Business is continuing to nurture and create:
Leaders from Alberta for the World
Shell is a global group of energy and petrochemical companies employing 90,000 people in more than 80 countries. Our aim is to help meet the energy needs of society in ways that are economically, environmentally and socially responsible.
Curtin University offers teaching and learning and research foci in energy economics through the Department of Minerals and Energy Economics, headed by Prof. Daniel J. Packey, and the Centre for Research in Energy and Mineral Economics, headed by Prof. Ronald D. Ripple. DMEE offers a coursework Master of Science (Minerals and Energy Economics), as well as opportunities for Masters and PhD research degrees. CREME is closely related to DMEE in the conduct of research across the full range of energy economics topics and issues, and it facilitates research collaboration across the University and externally.
ConocoPhillips is one of the worldâ€™s largest independent exploration and production companies based on proved reserves and production. We explore for, produce, transport and market crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas and bitumen worldwide. Our operating segments consist of Alaska, Lower 48 and Latin America, Canada, Europe, Asia Pacific and Middle East, and Other International.
Our vision is to be the E&P company of choice for all stakeholders by pioneering a new standard of excellence. The ConocoPhillips global portfolio reflects our legacy as a major company in terms of its size and breadth, yet offers the compelling organic growth more common to independent companies. Our diverse asset base also reflects a resource-rich North American portfolio, a low-risk international portfolio and an emerging conventional and unconventional global exploration prospect inventory. We have the technical depth and capabilities to operate virtually anywhere and in any resource trend. And where we do operate we place safety, health and environmental stewardship at the top of our priorities.
Headquartered in Houston, Texas, ConocoPhillips had operations and activities in 30 countries, $58 billion in annual revenue, $117 billion of assets, and approximately 16,900 employees as of Dec. 31, 2012. Production from continuing operations averaged 1,527 MBOED in 2012, and proved reserves were 8.6 billion BOE as of Dec. 31, 2012. For more information, go to www.conocophillips.com.
The Technische Universitaet Berlin (TU Berlin) with its seven faculties and 320 senior and 15 junior professors strives to promote the accumulation of knowledge and to facilitate technological progress by adhering to the fundamental principles of excellence and quality. Regional, national and international networking with partners in science and industry is an important aspect in all these endeavors. The university focuses on six core research priorities defined by related competencies and social obligations. One of these is Energy Systems and Sustainable Resource Management. This research priority includes energy technology, energy economics and politics, climate change, water supply, and the management of limited resources in general. Areas of research presently focus on efficient gas turbines, photovoltaic systems, networks and functional energy storage, energy-efficient cities, and water supplies. Scientific innovations and their impacts on production and consumption patterns play pivotal roles in this process, as do local environmental factors. In close cooperation with other research fields such as "Materials, Design and Manufacturing" and "Infrastructure and Mobility", research is devoted towards sustaining future living standards and ensured energy supplies for society at large. The professors chairing "Energy Systems" and "Infrastructure Policy" have, among others, for many years served IAEE in different functions.
Die BKW-Gruppe ist eines der bedeutendsten Schweizer Energieunternehmen. Sie beschÃ¤ftigt mehr als 2â€˜800 Mitarbeitend und deckt alle Stufen der Energieversorgung ab: von der Produktion Ã¼ber den Transport und Handel bis hin zum Vertrieb. Direkt und indirekt Ã¼ber ihre Vertriebspartner versorgt die BKW mehr als eine Million Menschen mit Strom. Der BKW-Produktionspark umfasst Wasserkraftwerke, ein Kernkraftwerk, ein Gaskombikraftwerk und Anlagen mit neuen erneuerbaren Anlagen.
The BKW Group is one of Switzerlandâ€™s largest energy companies. It employs more than 2,800 people and covers all stages of energy supply: from production and transmission to trading and distribution. Directly and indirectly via its distribution partners, BKW supplies power to more than a million people. BKWâ€™s production portfolio covers hydroelectric power plants, a nuclear power plant, a gas-fired combined-cycle power plant and new renewable energy facilities.
The University of Western Australia (UWA) is one of Australiaâ€™s leading universities and has an international reputation for excellence in teaching, learning and research. Western Australia is the key resource state in Australia and is in a zone shared with some of the fastest growing economies in the world. The resource-led Western Australian economy is transitioning to a highly globally connected knowledge economy and Perth is the central hub in this network. At its core is a world-class University.
UWA has almost 24,000 students enrolled across nine faculties. A model of broad undergraduate studies followed by postgraduate professional qualifications is designed to produce well-rounded graduates, as well as provide additional entry opportunities for a wider range of students. The University aims to be counted among the top 50 universities in the world by 2050, and is currently ranked 91st on the Shanghai Jiao-Tong University Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU).
Toyota (NYSE:TM), the world's top automaker and creator of the Prius, is committed to building vehicles for the way people live through its Toyota, Lexus and Scion brands. Over the past 50 years, Toyota has built more than 25 million cars and trucks in North America, where it operates 14 manufacturing plants and directly employs more than 40,000 people. The companyâ€™s 1,800 North American dealerships sold more than 2.5 million cars and trucks in 2013 â€“ and about 80 percent of all Toyota vehicles sold over the past 20 years are still on the road today. For more information about Toyota, visit www.toyotanewsroom.com.
The Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis (ITS-Davis) is the leading university center in the world on sustainable transportation. It is home to more than 60 affiliated faculty and researchers, 120 graduate students, and a budget of $12 million. While our principal focus is research, we also emphasize education and outreach.
The Institute is unique in hosting a graduate program in transportation, matching interdisciplinary research with interdisciplinary education. Our Transportation Technology and Policy (TTP) graduate curriculum draws from 34 different academic disciplines. Our more than 225 alumni are becoming leaders in government and industry.
We are partnering with government, industry and non-governmental organizations to inform policy making and business decisions, and advance public discourse on key transportation, energy and environmental issues. The Institute is focused on issues important to society.
Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) was founded with the objective to facilitate the development of electric power supply in Korea, meet the country's power supply and demands needs, and contribute to the national economy.
In addition, KEPCO is not only contributing to the national development and economy by ensuring a stable power supply and providing customer-oriented services, but also is carrying out 32 projects in 17 countries around the world to create sustainable new future growth engines.
KAPSARC was founded as a non-profit global institution for independent research into the economics of energy, to contribute to societal wellbeing and prosperity.
From our base in one of the worldâ€™s most important energy-producing regions, KAPSARC develops economic frameworks to reduce the overall costs and environmental impacts of energy supply, increase the value created from energy consumption and achieve effective alignment between energy policy objectives and outcomes.
We collaborate with leading international research centers, public policy organizations, and industrial and government institutions, freely sharing our knowledge, insights and analytical frameworks.
KAPSARC studies topics of global importance â€“ with a particular focus on the Middle East, China, India and East Africa â€“ both in terms of the impacts of policies on their own societies and the spillovers to interconnected global markets.
The Center draws upon the talent and expertise of an international group of researchers comprising more than 15 nationalities.
Plinovodi Ltd., is Independent Transmission Operator (ITO) - company managing the natural gas transmission network on national level in the Republic of Slovenia, in EU. Our customers are large industrial users and local distributors, as well as cross-border shippers of natural gas. Natural gas is transported over pipeline network with the total length of 1.155 km.
Through our mission â€“ we connect people and energy â€“ with passion, we provide energy transmission and opportunities for energy supply and we are committed to reliability, safety and expertise, and strive for technological and social advancement. We create space for synergy between people, industry and environment.
In day-to-day operations we live our values â€“ knowledge and professionalism, dedication, creativity, responsibility, respect, trust, integrity and self-initiative. Our people are the most important capital and our leadership is based on responsibility, inspiration and personal example.
Company's main development directions are promotion of use and transmission of natural gas, development of international connections and relations, sustainable growth and development, active cooperation within the value chain and advocacy of modern energy solutions.
Through our vision as a growing gas infrastructure pillar, connected with the environment and integrated into the international space, providing efficient energy solutions for people's needs we believe in our future development. A gaze into the future is taking into consideration the existing economic, climate and technological development of the natural gas market of the last decade, which reveals also new possibilities. Safe, reliable and competitive transmission of natural gas is not only a pillar of our rich history but also of time ahead of us.
BogaziÃ§i Universityâ€™s vision is to be a leading institution of higher education, one that shapes the future through being a pioneer in education, teaching, and research. The primary tenets of our vision are to
Founded in 1925, DIW Berlin (the German Institute for Economic Research) is one of the leading economic research institutes in Germany. The Institute analyzes the economic and social aspects of topical issues, formulating and disseminating policy advice based on its research findings. The Sustainability research cluster examines the economic conditions and consequences of sustainable development. It focuses on analyzing sustainable energy supply and mobility, as well as climate protection.
Enedis manages the public electricity distribution network for 95% of continental France. Every day, its 39 033 employees oversee the operation, maintenance and development of a nearly 1.3 million km network.
Enedis thus has 2 major public service duties.
The quality of Enedisâ€™s electricity supply is among the highest in Europe. Linky, the communicating meter: as well as providing accurate meter readings, it can perform remote operations, such as measuring the consumption and production of electricity, or resolving accidental outages. Linky also helps to control electricity consumption.
The Energy Policy Research Group (EPRG) is a research centre based at Cambridge Judge Business School and Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. EPRG's research spans energy and environmental topics, including electricity, natural gas and oil markets; climate policy and carbon pricing; as well as energy technologies and finance. The core research discipline of the group is economics, within a framework that encourages collaboration between experts from different academic traditions, drawing on insights from engineering, political science and law. EPRG combines world-class academic research, excellence in training of top graduate students, and high-quality dissemination and engagement activities towards industry and public policy makers. The group is supported by the research councils, foundations, as well as by industry and other stakeholders via its Energy Policy Forum (EPF).
The Florence School of Regulation (FSR) was established in 2004 as an independent knowledge hub which brings together Regulators, Policy Makers, Academia and Industry to share the most innovative thinking in energy regulation.
Today the FSR operates as a global platform, engaging in the development of research, training and policy dialogue in Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa, and beyond. The FSR is supported by an International Faculty of leading academics and practitioners, and it benefits from the contribution and advice of +300 global experts in the sector.
Institutionally, the FSR sits as a programme of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies of the European University Institute in Florence, Europeâ€™s intergovernmental institution for doctoral and postdoctoral studies and research.
Georgian National Energy and Water Supply Regulatory Commissionâ€™s (GNERC) mission is to:
The internationally top-ranked Khalifa University is the one university in the UAE with the research and academic programs that address the entire range of strategic, scientific and industrial challenges facing the UAEâ€™s knowledge economy transformation and our rapidly evolving world. Its world-class faculty and state-of-the-art research facilities provide an unparalleled learning experience to students from the UAE and abroad. The university brings together the best in science, technology and engineering in the UAE, to offer specialized degrees that can take promising high school graduates all the way to top-rated doctorate degree holders
The Market Surveillance Administrator is a public agency created to promote the fair, efficient, and openly competitive operation of the electricity and retail natural gas markets in Alberta, Canada. It does this by undertaking surveillance, analysis, and public reporting related to these markets and by enforcing the applicable legislation, regulations, market rules, and reliability standards.