Association Webinars: The Economic Growth Modeling we Need: Insights from the HARMONEY Growth Model



  

 

All economies require physical resource consumption to grow and maintain their structure. The modern economy is additionally characterized by private debt. The Human and Resources with MONEY (HARMONEY) economic growth model links these features using a stock and ow consistent framework in physical and monetary units. Via an updated version, this presentation explores the interdependence of growth and three major structural metrics of an economy: (1) the relationship between resources (energy) consumption and GDP, or “decoupling”, (2) the relationship between wages and profits (or wage and profit shares) in the context of resources consumption growth and stagnation, and (3) the relative size of economic sectors in the economy. I compare HARMONEY model results to long-term trends in the global and U.S. economies. These comparisons indicate that the HARMONEY framework enables realistic investigation of the interdependence and constraints among growth, energy consumption, and economic distribution. These interdependencies are generally lacking in orthodox growth modeling (e.g., neoclassical) growth, and this has major policy implications for anticipating the feedbacks from a low-carbon energy transition.

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Speaker:

Carey W. King, Research Scientist and Assistant Director, Energy Institute, University of Texas at Austin

Dr. Carey W King performs interdisciplinary research related to how energy systems interact within the economy and environment as well as how our policy and social systems can make decisions and tradeoffs among these often competing factors. The past performance of our energy systems is no guarantee of future returns, yet we must understand the development of past energy systems. Carey’s research goals center on rigorous interpretations of the past to determine the most probable future energy pathways.

His first book, The Economic Superorganism: Beyond the Competing Narratives of Energy, Growth, and Policy, highlights the ways that we should improve macroeconomic modeling by more directly incorporating physical principles.

Carey is Research Scientist at The University of Texas at Austin and Assistant Director at the Energy Institute. He also has appointments within the Jackson School of Geosciences and the McCombs School of Business. He has both a B.S. with high honors and Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Texas at Austin. 


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Event Date: January 10, 2022

Event Time: 10:00 - 11:00 AM Eastern Time

Topic: The Economic Growth Modeling we Need: Insights from the HARMONEY Growth Model

Speaker: Carey King

Price: FREE


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