Global oil demand had historically been forecast to grow over the next two decades due to strong population and economic growth in developing nations and the rise of the middle class who can afford a more oil-intensive lifestyle.
Currently views of future oil demand growth range from the position that global oil demand has already peaked to the possibility of moderate growth through 2040.
There is currently tremendous uncertainty about the global oil demand trajectory given recent changes in the strength and timing of government climate policies and the advent of the COVID pandemic and its effects on travel and global economic growth.
This webinar looks at the range of possible trajectories for global oil demand and the underlying drivers responsible for the difference in views. It also addresses the market implications for these views.
Adam Sieminski is Senior Advisor to the Board of Trustees at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center. KAPSARC is an independent, non-profit, research think tank located in Riyadh. Its mission is to advance the understanding of energy, economics, and the environment, acting as a catalyst for dialogue.
Prior to joining KAPSARC, Mr. Sieminski held the James Schlesinger Chair for Energy and Geopolitics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. Sieminski served as Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical division of the U.S. Department of Energy in 2012-2016. While awaiting U.S. Senate confirmation for the EIA appointment, he was the Senior Director for Energy and Environment of the U.S. National Security Council at the White House. He was previously Deutsche Bank’s chief energy economist and integrated oil company analyst.
Mr. Sieminski is an active member of the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE), a Senior Fellow and former President of the U.S. Association for Energy Economics (USAEE), and was President of the National Association of Petroleum Investment Analysts. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation and earned both an undergraduate degree in civil engineering and a master's degree in public administration from Cornell University.
Tim Gould (@tim_gould_) was appointed the Agency’s Chief Energy Economist in 2021. As Chief Energy Economist, he provides strategic advice on energy economics across a wide range of IEA activities and analysis. Mr Gould is also Head of the Division for Energy Supply and Investment Outlooks, in which capacity he co-leads the World Energy Outlook, the IEA’s flagship publication, and oversees the Agency’s work on investment and finance, including the World Energy Investment report.
Mr Gould joined the IEA in 2008, initially as a specialist on Russian and Caspian energy, and in recent years has designed and directed the World Energy Outlook together with the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller while contributing to the Outlook as a principal author. Prior to joining the IEA, Mr Gould was Senior Advisor to the Secretary General of the Energy Charter and has ten years of experience in Eastern Europe, primarily in Ukraine. He graduated from Oxford University and has a post-graduate diploma from the School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University.
Marianne Kah is an Adjunct Senior Research Scholar and Advisory Board Member at the Center on Global Energy Policy. She had been the Chief Economist of ConocoPhillips at its Houston headquarters for 25 years where she was responsible for developing the company’s market outlooks for oil and natural gas, and was the company’s expert in scenario planning. She also communicated her views to numerous external stakeholders, including Energy Ministers, legislators, think tanks and governments.
Prior to ConocoPhillips, Ms. Kah was the Manager of Corporate Planning at Cabot Corporation in Boston and a Coordinator of Strategic Planning at Conoco in Houston. Prior to that she was a Policy Analyst at the Energy and Minerals Division of the Government Accountability Office where she led various energy policy studies for the U.S. Senate Energy Committee and House Fossil and Synthetic Fuels Subcommittee.
She has been the President of the U.S. Association for Energy Economics and has been awarded a Senior Fellow award by that organization. She also chaired the American Petroleum Institute’s Committee on Economics and Statistics and is co-chairing the Energy Roundtable for the National Association for Business Economics.
Ms. Kah has a B.S. from Cornell University and Master of Public Administration from the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University.
Eirik Wærness is Senior Vice President and Chief Economist in Equinor, group responsible for macroeconomics, energy and commodity market analyses, geopolitics, competitive intelligence, and policy and regulation in Equinor’s commodity markets.
He has broad experience from government, academics and private sector companies. In Equinor, he is leader of Corporate Strategy, Corporate Planning and Analysis, Economic Analysis in Upstream Norway, Energy Market Analysis, in addition to current role.
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