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Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan

Lester C. Hunt and Yasushi Ninomiya

Year: 2003
Volume: Volume24
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No3-3
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Abstract:
This paper demonstrates the importance of adequately modelling the Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) and seasonality when estimating transportation oil demand for the UK and Japan. The structural time series model is therefore employed to allow for a stochastic underlying trend and stochastic seasonals using quarterly data from the early 1970s, for both UK and Japan. It is found that the stochastic seasonals are preferred to the conventional deterministic dummies and, more importantly, the UEDT is found to be highly non-linear for both countries, with periods where it is both upward and downward sloping.



Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030

Joyce Dargay, Dermot Gately and Martin Sommer

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No4-7
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Abstract:
The speed of vehicle ownership expansion in emerging market and developing countries has important implications for transport and environmental policies, as well as the global oil market. The literature remains divided on the issue of whether the vehicle ownership rates will ever catch up to the levels common in the advanced economies. This paper contributes to the debate by building a model that explicitly models the vehicle saturation level as a function of observable country characteristics: urbanization and population density. Our model is estimated on the basis of pooled time-series (1960-2002) and cross-section data for 45 countries that include 75 percent of the world�s population. We project that the total vehicle stock will increase from about 800 million in 2002 to more than two billion units in 2030. By this time, 56% of the world�s vehicles will be owned by non-OECD countries, compared with 24% in 2002. In particular, China�s vehicle stock will increase nearly twenty-fold, to 390 million in 2030. This fast speed of vehicle ownership expansion implies rapid growth in oil demand.





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