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The Energy Crisis and Macroeconomic Policy

William D. Nordhaus

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No1-2
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Abstract:
It is hard to find an issue more confusing than energy policy. Is there a shortage of oil? Why? How long will the shortages last? Who's to blame? What will be the supply and demand response to price decontrol? What are the appropriate policy responses today? Can the president or the secretary of energy or the Congress be trusted to find the answers? And so on.



Simulation of World Oil Market Shocks: A Markov Analysis of OPEC and Consumer Behavior

Richard F. Kosobud and Houston H. Stokes

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No2-3
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Abstract:
One major determinant of crude oil price will be the question of whether or not OPEC can resolve its internal conflicts and act effectively as a coalition in restricting the quantities it will supply. For the economist, this question stands at the center of the energy problem; unfortunately, economic analysis has little that is definite to say about the question, and consequently little to say about how OPEC determines its posted price policies and the quantities of oil to be placed on the market. Economic analysis has also failed to provide any definite explanation of the fact that individual OPEC members have not been prone to seek net revenue increases through additional sales, even during periods of declining sales or during oil gluts such as the 1975 recession in OECD countries.



Policy Implications of Energy Vulnerability

James L. Plummer

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No2-2
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Abstract:
The research of the Energy Vulnerability Modeling Project has concluded that the oil stockpile premium probably lies in the range of $20 to $40 per barrel, and the oil import reduction premium in the range of $5 to $20 per barrel.ENERGY POLICY VS. OIL POLICYSince the price of oil Btu's is three to four times the price of coal Btu's, energy Btu's are definitely "not created equal." If an oil import reduction premium of $5 to $20 is added on top of the price of domestic oil, the inequality grows much larger.



Reducing the Economic Impacts of Oil Supply Interruptions: An International Perspective

Henry S. Rowen, John P. Weyant

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No1-1
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Abstract:
Several circumstances could lead to deep and extended interruptions of the world's supply of oil during the 1980s. The range of potential interruptions includes those on the scale experienced in 1973-74 and 1979-80 but is not limited to them. Much deeper and longer interruptions may occur or be threatened.



World Oil Prices and Economic Growth In the 1980s

Henry D. Jacoby and James L. Paddock

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No2-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
The world oil market is a forecaster's nightmare: seldom have so many knowledgeable observers been so wrong so often. Prior to 1973, few foresaw the magnitude of the price jump that was possible under disrupted conditions, or predicted the years of relative stability that followed. The Iranian revolution brought a similar surprise. On the other hand, in the fall of 1980 came the Iran-Iraq war; again a major price shock seemed at hand. Experts are still arguing about why it did not occur.



Energy Demand Elasticities in Industrialized Countries: A Survey

George Kouris

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No3-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
A high price elasticity for energy demand implies a long-term ability of the economy to absorb the impact of higher energy prices. Thus price shocks, after generating pronounced inflationary and recessionary effects over the short term, do not act as a constraint to economic growth over the longer term. By contrast, a low price elasticity implies weak reactions to increasing energy costs and a protracted adverse effect on output and inflation. Unfortunately, a survey of the literature on energy demand elasticities shows diverse results. Should econometric results be used for policymaking and planning, then a critical and eclectic attitude is imperative to screen out the most relevant aspects of the empirically determined price elasticities.



Comment on "Optimal Oil Producer Behavior Considering Macrofeedbacks"

Knut Anton Mork

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No4-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
Harry Saunders's paper on the above subject in this issue of the Journal raises a very interesting point. As is well known, oil-exporting countries now hold major assets in the Western economies. Furthermore, the sensitivity of these economies to abrupt changes in oil prices seems widely accepted. It then seems reasonable to expect oil exporters' pricing decisions to be influenced by concerns about the rate of return on their assets. In particular, Saunders argues that oil exporters would want to avoid abrupt price changes because the ensuing shock effects would tend to reduce the rate of return on capital.



Energy Prices and Capital Obsolescence: Evidence from the Oil Embargo Period

Joel C. Gibbons

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-2
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Abstract:
The average service life of fixed assets in U.S. manufacturing industries increased gradually from 1962 to 1969. Thereafter, it fell sharply up to the mid-1970s. The most rapid change occurred in the three years following the Arab oil embargo. There is reason to believe that these events were causally related: the rapid escalation of petroleum prices caused the decline in useful lives of plant and machinery. The reasoning behind this statement and an analysis of the data on service lives of fixed assets are the topic of this paper.



The Social Cost of Imported Oil

Elena Folkerts-Landau

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No3-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
Structural adjustments in the economy and an increase in uncertainty about future oil prices followed the two oil price shocks of the 1970s and suggested that continued dependence on imported oil was costly. It was argued that private decisions to consume imported oil did not appropriately take into account the country's vulnerability to oil exporters. Accordingly, a literature developed around the idea that the market price of imported oil does not reflect the full social cost.



Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions

James D. Hamilton

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
Turbulent petroleum markets and poor economic performance have been making headlines for the last decade. Three major oil shocks (1973-1974, 1979, and 1980-1981) have each been followed by major recessions. While the magnitude and violence of recent oil price changes are unique in postwar experience, the phenomenon of political instability producing disruptions in petroleum supply is not. Hamilton (1983a) observed that all but one of the recessions in the United States since World War II were preceded-typically by about nine months-by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum (see Figure 1).




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