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An Unstable World Oil Market

M. A. Adelman

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-4
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Abstract:
There is a permanent surplus because huge low-cost reserves are available for development. The cartel keeps them undeveloped to maintain the price. Their power is great, but they are a "clumsy cartel" and sometimes overreact to produce a shortage. Hence the future is cloudy and threatening, like the recent past.



Reserves and Reserve Production Ratios In Imperfect Markets

Keith C. Brown

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No2-12
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Abstract:
Recent changes in reserves or reserve/production ratios are often cited as evidence of hypothesized economic changes in petroleum markets. However, the technology of petroleum production and the fact that international petroleum markets are not perfectly competitive combine to render incorrect interpretations all too easy. Both market imperfections and technical limitations to production rates slow market adjustments to changes in expected prices or costs. This makes it difficult to use observed changes in reserve/production ratios as evidence of some hypothesized economic change, since neither of the observations used to get the observed change may have been close to the then-prevailing long run equilibrium.



World Oil Resources, Reserves and Production

Peter R. Odell

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-6
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Abstract:
Recent estimates of limited oil resources as constituting a constraint on the future of oil, lack validity. The issue is unimportant for the oil market for 50 years. Similarly, fears for the adequacy of annual additions to reserves are unfounded: the world is running into oil, not out of it.By contrast, the geography of reserves development is important. Twothirds of reserves are in the Middle East, but 85% of these are irrelevant to global production to 2010, given the potential in OECD and non-OPEC developing countries, and the maintenance of the current oil price.Thus, demand for Middle East oil will remain frustratingly modest. Efforts to expand production, necessarily in cooperation with major oil corporations, will regenerate fears elsewhere for supply security and create prospects for regionalising global oil around the three groupings of OECD countries, to which the non-Middle East OPEC members will adhere.



An Integrated Model of Oil Production

John R. Moroney and M. Douglas Berg

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume20
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6
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Abstract:
This paper demonstrates that models which combine the physical reserves of oil with economic and regulatory variables provide better forecasts of future production than models based on either reserves or economic variables alone. Four alternative models are specified and estimated. Out-of-sample forecasts show that a model combining reserves, lagged production, and the real price of oil performs much better than models based on reserves alone or economic variables alone.





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